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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Cyclone 5 (emnati) 
Message-ID: <20220222004857.737E41C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2022 00:48:57 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 220046
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/5/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/22 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 51.3 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 465 SW: 350 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 190 NW: 165
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/22 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 510 SW: 250 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 315 SW: 195 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 75

24H: 2022/02/23 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 510 SW: 165 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 315 SW: 140 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 120 NW: 95

36H: 2022/02/23 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 480 SW: 390 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 195

48H: 2022/02/24 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 500 SW: 305 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SW: 205 NW: 215

60H: 2022/02/24 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 470 SW: 325 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SW: 215 NW: 220

72H: 2022/02/25 00 UTC: 29.8 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 530 SW: 360 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SW: 270 NW: 250

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/26 00 UTC: 32.8 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 520 SW: 470 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 360 SW: 350 NW: 270

120H: 2022/02/27 00 UTC: 34.6 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 655 SW: 510 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 455 SW: 335 NW: 260

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

 THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) OF CYCLONE EMNATI SEEMS TO END
SLOWLY : THE LAST CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES FROM
1344UTC SHOW INDEED A RESIDUAL INNER EYEWALL WELL STARTED IN ITS
NORTH-WESTERN PART SURROUNDED BY AN OUTER WALL BECOMING STRONGER. THE
DVORAK ANALYSIS IN THE EYE IS NOT VERY RELEVANT TO EVALUATE THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM BECAUSE OF THE ONGOING ERC PROCESS,
NEVERTHELESS WITH THE SMAP PASS DATA OF 1433UTC, THE ESTIMATED
INTENSITY AT 00UTC IS 80 KT.

EMNATI'S MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST ACCELERATES, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
QUITE DISPERSED ABOUT THE MORE OR LESS SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF THIS
TRACK, AND THEREFORE ON THE LANDFALL AREA OVER MADAGASCAR ON TUESDAY
EVENING. ON THIS POINT, THE RSMC'S TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
VARIOUS AVAILABLE SCENARIOS. EMNATI SHOULD THEN EMERGE AT SEA SOUTH
OF MADAGASCAR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH
GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND A STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE
FURTHER EAST SHOULD MAKE THE SYSTEM SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD, CROSSING
THE 30TH PARALLEL ON FRIDAY, BUT WITHOUT A QUICK EVACUATION TOWARDS
THE MID-LATITUDES BECAUSE OF THE PASSAGE FROM SATURDAY OF A CELL OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE,
WITH LOW WIND SHEAR AND VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WHICH WILL
EVEN CONTINUE UNTIL THURSDAY. AFTER THE TEMPORARY WEAKENING DUE TO
THE ERC, EMNATI SHOULD RESUME INTENSIFICATION FROM NOW AND AS IT
PROGRESSES TOWARDS MADAGASCAR, POTENTIALLY REGAINING INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY, EMNATI SHOULD EMERGE AT SEA IN A FAIRLY WEAKENED STATE WITH
A POORLY CONSOLIDATED CENTER, BUT SHOULD EXPERIENCE A MODEST
RE-INTENSIFICATION BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY BY MOVING OVER COLDER SST AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASING SHEAR AND DRY AIR ADVECTION OVER THE NORTH OFF THE
CIRCULATION.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- MADAGASCAR : EMNATI IS A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE WHICH SHOULD MAKE
LANDFALL ON TUESDAY EVENING POTENTIALLY AS AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE LANDFALL AREA IS STILL UNCERTAIN, WITH A HIGHER
PROBABILITY OVER THE FIANARANTSOA PROVINCE, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
MANANJARY AND FARAFANGANA. NEAR THE IMPACT ZONE, DESTRUCTIVE WIND
GUSTS WHICH CAN EXCEED 200 KM/H, 10 METERS HIGH WAVES OFFSHORE, STORM
SURGE REACHING AROUND 1 METER AND VERY INTENSE RAINFALL IN THE AREA
(UP TO 200-400 MM IN THE LOWLANDS AND NEARLY 500 MM ON THE NEARBY
MOUNTAINS IN 24 HOURS) WHICH CAN PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. THE
INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM AND TO FOLLOW LOCAL AUTHORITIES' INSTRUCTIONS.=

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