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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Cyclone 5 (emnati) 
Message-ID: <20220222070556.9A1A31C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2022 07:05:56 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 220645
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/5/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/22 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 50.3 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 480 SW: 350 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SW: 315 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SW: 170 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 85 NW: 85

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/22 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 520 SW: 175 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 335 SW: 150 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SW: 130 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2022/02/23 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 555 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 335 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2022/02/23 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 490 SW: 345 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 215

48H: 2022/02/24 06 UTC: 26.3 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 510 SW: 325 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SW: 240 NW: 230

60H: 2022/02/24 18 UTC: 28.1 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 520 SW: 370 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SW: 270 NW: 230

72H: 2022/02/25 06 UTC: 29.6 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 535 SW: 435 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 360 SW: 345 NW: 260
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/26 06 UTC: 31.9 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 575 SW: 535 NW: 445
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 390 SW: 350 NW: 295
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 130

120H: 2022/02/27 06 UTC: 34.1 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 600 SW: 445 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 415 SW: 315 NW: 230

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0+ CI=5.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN OF EMNATI HAS DEGRADED WITH
AN EYE LOSING IN DEFINITION ASSOCIATED WITH LESS COLD CLOUD TOPS. A
SAR S1 PASS AT 0203Z THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED TO ASSESS THE INTENSITY
AND THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE AND IS USED AS A BASIS FOR THE
PRESENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE.

THE MOVEMENT OF EMNATI REMAINS SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON A NOW FAIRLY STABLE CONSENSUS TRACK FORECAST WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN THE TARGETING OF THE IMPACT ZONE WHICH WILL OCCUR IN A
LITTLE OVER A DOZEN HOURS. EMNATI SHOULD THEN MOVE BACK OVER SEAS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. A SMALL WEAKNESS OF THE HIGH
GEOPOTENTIALS IN THE SOUTH-WEST AND A STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE MORE
IN THE EAST SHOULD MAKE SLOWLY DRIFT THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTH,
CROSSING THE 30TH PARALLEL ON FRIDAY, BUT WITHOUT FAST EVACUATION
TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES BECAUSE OF THE PASSAGE FROM SATURDAY OF A
CELL OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DESPITE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS,
EMNATI IS UNABLE TO INTENSIFY. AN INSUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL (AS
THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER WATERS COOLED BY BATSIRAI) AND AN EXOTIC WIND
STRUCTURE WITH AN INCOMPLETE ERC, SEEM TO BE THE MAIN REASONS FOR A
LIMITATION OF THE INTENSITY. BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY,
EMNATI SHOULD EMERGE AT SEA IN A WEAKENED STATE AND WITH AN
ILL-DEFINED CENTER. CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR A
RE-INTENSIFICATION WITH PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. FROM
THURSDAY EVENING, AN INTERACTION WITH THE JET SHOULD INDUCE THE
BEGINNING OF AN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- MADAGASCAR : ENMATI WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEXT NIGHT (SHORTLY AFTER 18
UTC) IN THE PROVINCE OF FIANARANTSOA BETWEEN MANANJARY AND MANAKARA.
EVEN IF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED, EMNATI REMAINS A LARGE AND
DANGEROUS CYCLONE LIKELY TO CAUSE CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE ON THE AFFECTED
AREAS:
-WINDS: NEAR THE IMPACT AREA AND UP TO 100-150 KM SOUTH OF THE
CENTER, DESTRUCTIVE GUSTS BETWEEN 150 AND 200 KM/H ARE TO BE
EXPECTED.
-RAIN: VERY IMPORTANT RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
TRAJECTORY, OF THE ORDER OF 150-250 MM IN 24 HOURS IN THE PLAIN AND
UP TO 400-500 MM ON THE RELIEF. THESE HEAVY RAINS CAN CREATE
IMPORTANT FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES IN THE REGION.
-SEA: THE COMBINATION OF A CYCLONIC SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES CLOSE
TO 10 METERS OFFSHORE AND A SEA LEVEL RISE OF ABOUT 1M, MAY GENERATE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN COASTAL AREAS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CENTER (UP
TO 100-150 KM SOUTH OF THE CENTER).

THE INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM AND TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE AUTHORITIES.=

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