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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220222091128.A9FF81C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2022 09:11:28 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 220911
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Feb 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0815 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough extends from 10N74W to 07N79W to 10N85W to 08N88W. The 
ITCZ extends from 05.5N91W to 04N102W to 07N122W to beyond 
07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the
coast of Colombia from 01N-04N. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted from 06.5N-09N between 126W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Low pressure over the U.S. Great Basin is combining with high 
pressure well northwest of our waters to promote fresh to 
locally strong SW to W winds over the central and N Gulf of 
California, as captured in 0400 UTC ASCAT satellite winds. Gentle
to moderate N winds prevail across the southern Gulf. Moderate 
to fresh NW to N winds prevail across the Baja California 
offshore waters tonight. Seas are 4-7 ft in the Pacific waters,
except 7-9 ft across the waters of Baja Norte. Seas are 3-5 ft 
in the N and central Gulf of California, and 2-3 ft in the S 
Gulf.

Fresh to near gale SW to W winds are expected to continue across
portions of central and N Gulf of California through midday Wed.
Seas will build 6-8 ft to the N of 30N late Tue night. By Wed 
afternoon, a cold front should reach the N Gulf of California and
force fresh to strong NW winds across the entire Gulf on Thu 
through Sat, with seas to build up to 8 ft. Large swell 
generated by strong winds off California have begun to move into
the offshore waters of Baja Norte tonight, and will reach the 
waters north of Punta Eugenia into Tue, raising seas to 7-10 ft.
Beginning Wed, fresh to strong NW winds and building seas are 
expected offshore Baja California Norte and will continue 
progressing southward to offshore of Baja California Sur by Thu. 
Winds and seas should diminish on Fri west of the entire Baja 
California peninsula. Looking ahead, the next Tehuantepec N gap 
wind event should begin Fri night and may reach near gale late 
Sun.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea 
along with troughing over the E equatorial Pacific waters 
continues to produce fresh to strong NE gap winds over the 
Papagayo region and fresh to strong N winds over the Gulf of 
Panama N of 05N tonight. Seas are 5-8 ft in the Papagayo region,
4-7 ft in the Gulf of Panama, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

Fresh to strong NE gap winds are expected across the Papagayo 
region through Wed morning, then diminishing to moderate to fresh
through Fri. Fresh to strong N winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Panama tonight, before diminishing to moderate to fresh through 
at least Sat night. Large seas generated across the Papagayo area
are forecast to continue to propagate into the outer offshore 
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Tue. Light to gentle 
winds will remain elsewhere. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A ridge of high pressure extends from the NE Pacific through
30N132W southeastward to 19N109W. This ridge is combining with 
lower pressure along the ITCZ to produce moderate to fresh NE to
E trades mainly from 08N-20N west of 117W. Seas peak at 8-10 ft 
within the moderate to fresh trades zone and 5-7 ft elsewhere.

Winds will change little through Wed. Wed night through Sat, 
building high pressure north of the area will boost the NE trades
fresh to strong. Large N swell will move S of 30N Tue night and
gradually reach the tradewind zone Thu and Fri, and combine with
the NE wind waves from 10N-20N west of 120W. Seas should peak 
around 8-11 ft late Thu through Sat.

$$
Stripling


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