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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Message-ID: <20220222095012.893F41C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2022 09:50:12 +0000
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995 
AWIO20 FMEE 220947

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN 
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN 

DATE: 2022/02/22 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warning WTIO22 29/05 and WTIO30 FMEE 030/05 issued at 06UTC on Tropical Cyclone EMNATI.

Next warnings at 12UTC.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The monsoon flow is well present over the whole basin. It is accentuated over the west of the basin by the circulation driven by the tropical cyclone EMNATI that should land shortly after 18UTC over Madagascar. Over the east, the monsoon flow is more timid and feeds a monsoon trough (MT) around 12oS east of 65oE.

The convective activity is currently located around the cyclone but also in the convergence of flows north of the Mozambique Channel. It is also present at the eastern end of the basin, over the eastern part of the MT.

Tropical Cyclone EMNATI :

Position at 09UTC : 20.3oS / 49.9oE

Movement : SW at 10 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 minutes : 75 kt

Estimated pressure at the center : 960 hPa
For more information, please refer to bulletins WTIO22 and WTIO30 issued at 06UTC and following.

In the next few days, despite the return of the MT, cyclogenesis will have difficulties to set up because of a lack of convergence of low layers. At the very end of the period, the environmental conditions could start to be a little less unfavorable but it is rather the possible entry into our basin of a moderate or strong tropical storm that could take place.

Therefore, the risk of a moderate tropical storm entering our eastern basin becomes moderate for Sunday or Monday.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%
                                                                                                                                         
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.


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