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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220222154653.C49E91C0087@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2022 15:46:53 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 221546
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Feb 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough extends from 07N78W to 06N81W to 08N88W to 05N93W. The 
ITCZ extends from 05N93W to 03N108W to 07N123W to beyond 
07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 08.5N
between 125W-140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Low pressure over the U.S. Great Basin is combining with high 
pressure well northwest of the area to promote fresh SW to W 
winds over the central and N Gulf of California. Gentle to 
moderate N winds prevail across the southern Gulf. Moderate NW 
to N winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters
this morning. Seas are 4-7 ft across the Pacific waters, except 
7-9 ft across the waters off Baja Norte. Seas are 3-5 ft in the 
N and central Gulf of California, and 2-3 ft in the S Gulf.

Fresh to strong SW to W winds are expected across portions of the
central and N Gulf of California late this afternoon, increasing
to strong to near gale force overnight north of 30N, and
continuing through midday Wed. Seas will build 6-8 ft to the N 
of 30N late tonight. By Wed afternoon, a cold front should reach
the N Gulf of California and force fresh to strong NW winds 
across the entire Gulf Thu through Sat, with seas building up to
8 ft. Large swell generated by strong winds off California are 
currently affecting the offshore waters of Baja Norte this 
morning. Seas of 7-9 ft will continue offshore Baja California 
Norte into this evening. Beginning Wed, fresh to strong NW winds 
and building seas are expected offshore Baja California Norte and
will continue progressing southward to offshore of Baja 
California Sur by Thu. Winds and seas should diminish on Fri west
of the entire Baja California peninsula. Looking ahead, the next
Tehuantepec N gap wind event should begin Fri night and may 
reach near gale late Sun.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea 
along with troughing over the E equatorial Pacific waters 
continues to produce fresh to strong NE gap winds over the 
Papagayo region and fresh N winds over the Gulf of Panama N of 
04.5N this morning. Seas are 6-8 ft in the Papagayo region, 5-7 
ft south of the Gulf of Panama, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

Fresh to strong NE gap winds are expected across the Papagayo 
region through Wed morning, then diminishing to moderate to fresh
through Fri. Moderate to fresh N winds will continue to pulse in
the Gulf of Panama through at least Sat night. Large seas 
generated across the Papagayo area are forecast to continue to 
propagate into the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El 
Salvador through today. Light to gentle winds will remain 
elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A ridge of high pressure extends from the NE Pacific through
30N133W southeastward to 19N110W. This ridge is combining with 
lower pressure along the ITCZ to produce moderate to fresh NE to 
E trades mainly from 08N-20N west of 117W. Seas peak at 8-10 ft 
within the moderate to fresh trades zone and 5-7 ft elsewhere.

Winds will change little through Wed. Wed night through Sat, 
building high pressure north of the area will boost the NE trades
to fresh to strong, especially from the ITCZ to 20N between
120W-130W. Large N swell will move S of 30N tonight and 
gradually reach the tradewind zone Thu and Fri, and combine with 
the NE wind waves from 10N-20N west of 120W. Seas should peak 
around 8-11 ft late Thu through Sat.

$$
Hagen


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