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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220222213332.955891C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2022 21:33:32 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 222133
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Feb 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The ITCZ extends from 06N88W to 04N106W to 07N125W to beyond 
07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05.5N to 08.5N 
between 129W-140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Low pressure over the U.S. Great Basin is combining with high 
pressure well northwest of the area to promote fresh SW winds 
over the northern Gulf of California, as confirmed by a 22/1648
UTC ASCAT pass. Gentle winds prevail across the southern Gulf. 
Moderate NW winds prevail across the Baja California offshore 
waters. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are likely occurring
off Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds are occurring from
Manzanillo extending SE to the Guatemala border. Seas are 4-6 ft
across the Pacific waters, except 7-8 ft off Baja Norte. Seas 
are 2-4 ft in the northern Gulf of California and 1-3 ft in the 
southern Gulf.

Strong to near gale force SW to W winds are expected across the 
northern Gulf of California tonight through midday Wed, with seas
building to 7 ft late tonight into early Wed. A cold front will 
reach the northern Gulf of California by Wed afternoon. Fresh to 
strong NW winds will follow the front and affect the entire Gulf.
The fresh to strong NW winds will then persist in the Gulf 
through Sun, in the wake of the front. Seas will build up to 8 
ft in the northern Gulf by midday Wed, and will be 6-7 ft across 
the southern and central Gulf of California late Thu into Fri.
Swell off Baja California Norte is subsiding this afternoon, with
seas currently 7-8 ft. However, expect fresh to strong NW winds
and building seas west of Baja California behind a cold front 
Wed through Thu. Winds and seas should diminish on Fri west of 
the Baja California peninsula. Looking ahead, the next
Tehuantepec N gap wind event should begin Fri night, with strong
N winds. N winds will increase to near gale force by late Sun.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea 
along with troughing over the E equatorial Pacific waters 
continues to produce fresh to strong NE gap winds over the 
Papagayo region and fresh N winds over the Gulf of Panama N of 
04.5N, both of which were confirmed by recent ASCAT passes. A
recent ASCAT pass shows moderate S winds off Ecuador. Seas are 
6-8 ft in the Papagayo region. A recent altimeter pass shows 5-7 
ft seas south of the Gulf of Panama. Seas of 3-5 ft are likely 
occurring elsewhere off western Panama and southern Costa Rica, 
while 4-6 ft seas are occurring off Colombia and Ecuador.

Fresh to strong NE gap winds will pulse mainly at night across 
the Papagayo region through Thu night, then diminish slightly Fri
through Sat. Moderate to fresh N winds will continue to pulse in
the Gulf of Panama at night through the weekend. Large seas 
generated across the offshore Papagayo area are forecast to 
propagate into the outer offshore waters of El Salvador through 
this afternoon and subside this evening. Moderate S winds off 
Ecuador should diminish to gentle this evening. Light to gentle 
winds will remain elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A surface trough extends from 14.5N119W to 09N121W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 13N to 15.5N between 114W and
120.5W. A ridge of high pressure extends from the NE Pacific 
through 30N133W southeastward to 18N108W. This ridge is 
combining with lower pressure along the ITCZ to produce fresh NE
to E trades mainly from 08N-25N west of 130W, and from 08N-16N 
between 114W-130W. Seas are 8-9 ft within the fresh trade wind 
zone south of 15N and west of 125W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere.

Winds will change little through Wed. Wed night through Sat, 
building high pressure north of the area will boost the NE trades
to fresh to strong, especially from the ITCZ to 20N between
120W-130W. Large N swell will move S of 30N tonight and 
gradually reach the tradewind zone Thu and Fri, and combine with 
the NE wind waves from 10N-20N west of 120W. Seas should peak 
around 8-10 ft late Thu through Sat. New NW swell will reach the
western part of the area over the weekend, keeping 8-11 ft seas
across most of the area north of 05N and west 120W through at
least Sun night.

$$
Hagen


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