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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Overland Depression 5 (emnati) 
Message-ID: <20220223011850.D5CDB1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2022 01:18:50 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 230027
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/5/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/23 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 47.8 E
(TWENTY TWO    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 967 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 480 SW: 405 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 335 SW: 260 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/23 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 480 SW: 405 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 0

24H: 2022/02/24 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 565 SW: 400 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 0

36H: 2022/02/24 12 UTC: 27.1 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 470 SW: 350 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SW: 185 NW: 0

48H: 2022/02/25 00 UTC: 29.0 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 585 SW: 415 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 380 SW: 230 NW: 120

60H: 2022/02/25 12 UTC: 30.8 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 610 SW: 465 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 405 SW: 315 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 85 NW: 75

72H: 2022/02/26 00 UTC: 32.0 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 510 SW: 435 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 65 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/27 00 UTC: 34.0 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 465 SW: 510 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 380 SW: 270 NW: 85

120H: 2022/02/28 00 UTC: 38.5 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 325 SW: 240 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 195

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=/

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL CYCLONE EMNATI MADE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST
OF MADAGASCAR THIS TUESDAY AROUND 23Z (WEDNESDAY AT 02 AM ,
MADAGASCAR TIME) ABOUT 20 TO 30 KM SOUTH OF MANAKARA AND ABOUT 40 TO
50 KM NORTH OF FARAFANGANA (AROUND 22.4S). THE LANDFALL LOCATION IS
ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF MSG1 INFRARED IMAGERY WHICH DISPLAYED AN
EYE BEFORE AND DURING LANDFALL, AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE
SATELLITE'S PARALLAX EFFECT. THIS LANDFALL OCCURRED A LITTLE BIT
FURTHER SOUTH AND A LITTLE BIT LATER THAN INITIALLY FORECAST. THE
CYCLONE HAS INDEED BEEN MOVING MORE SOUTHWARD IN THE LAST FEW HOURS,
MAKING IT SKIRT ALONG THE COAST A BIT LONGER. THE OUTER EYEWALL'S
WEAKENING AND RENEWED ACTIVITY WITHIN THE INNER EYEWALL HAS BEEN
CONFIRMED BY RECENT IMAGERY WITH A COMPACT CENTER ACCOMPANIED BY A
SUSTAINED CONVECTION NOW CONCENTRATED WITHIN A RADIUS OF LESS THAN 70
KM FROM THE CENTER AND ON THE CONTRARY A WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS AT A
LONGER DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT THE TIME
OF LANDFALL IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN (LACK OF OBSERVATIONS, DVORAK
ANALYSIS NOT VERY HELPFUL) BUT, IN THE CONTINUITY OF THE 75/80 KT
ESTIMATED PREVIOUSLY, WE CAN SUPPOSE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND
23UTC WERE POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO 70/75 KT. WEAKENING WINDS AND
INCREASING CENTRAL PRESSURE ARE CURRENTLY UNDERWAY AS THE CENTER
MOVES OVER LAND, HENCE AN ESTIMATE OF 65KT AT 00UTC.

EMNATI KEEPS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THEN WILL TURN SOUTHWARD UNDER
THE EFFECT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-EAST THEN TO THE
EAST OF THE SYSTEM. EMNATI WILL THEREFORE MOVE ACROSS THE MALAGASY
LANDS AND MOVE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR BEFORE THURSDAY MORNING
AND WILL THEN SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS EXTRATROPICAL LATITUDES BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, WINDS WILL NATURALLY WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS OVER LAND. EMNATI WILL EMERGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR AS A
WEAKENED MODERATE TROPICAL STORM WITH A FAIRLY BROAD CIRCULATION.
WITH DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL, THEN INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND DRY
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME
POST-TROPICAL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARDS, BUT WILL STILL KEEP
MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 40 TO 50 KT IN CONNECTION WITH BAROCLINIC
PROCESSES.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR :
-WINDS : NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA AND UP TO 100 KM SOUTH OF THE CENTER,
GUSTS EXCEEDING 150 KM/H ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
-RAINFALL : VERY IMPORTANT ACCUMULATIONS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TRACK, ABOUT 150-300 MM IN 24H IN THE
LOWLANDS AND 300-600 MM ON HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL CAN
CREATE IMPORTANT FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES.
-SEA: THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES CLOSE
TO 10 METERS OFFSHORE AND A SEA SURGE REACHING ABOUT 1M CAN GENERATE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON THE COASTAL AREAS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CENTER
(UP TO 100-150 KM SOUTH OF THE CENTER).
-INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO EXTREMELY CAREFUL AND TO FOLLOW LOCAL
AUTHORITIES INSTRUCTIONS.=

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