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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220223033530.895B21C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2022 03:35:30 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 230335
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Feb 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough extends from 10N74W to 02N80W. The ITCZ extends from 
05N87W to 04.5N114W to 07N120W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is along the Colombian coast
from 01.5N to 06N E of 79.5W. Scattered moderate convection is 
from 06.5N to 08.5N between 126W-140W, and from 12N to 15.5N 
between 113W-121W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Low pressure over the U.S. Great Basin continues to combine with
strong high pressure well northwest of the area to promote fresh
SW winds over the northern Gulf of California, as confirmed by 
afternoon ASCAT data. Gentle winds prevail across the central and
southern Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds prevail across
the Baja California offshore waters. Moderate to locally fresh 
NW winds are occurring along the Mexican coast from near Mazatlan
to the Cabo Corrientes area. Light to gentle westerly winds are 
occurring from Manzanillo extending SE to the Guatemala border. 
Seas are 4-6 ft across the Pacific waters, except 7-8 ft off Baja
Norte. Seas are 3-4 ft in the northern Gulf of California and 
1-3 ft in the southern Gulf.

Strong to near gale force SW to W winds are expected across the 
northern Gulf of California tonight through midday Wed, with seas
building to 7 ft late tonight into early Wed. A cold front 
moving across southern California tonight will reach the northern
Gulf of California by Wed afternoon. Fresh to strong NW winds 
will follow the front and spread the full length of the Gulf on
Thu. The fresh to strong NW winds will then persist in the Gulf 
through Sun, in the wake of the front. Seas will build up to 8 ft
in the northern Gulf by midday Wed, and will be 6-8 ft across 
the southern and central Gulf of California late Thu into Fri. 
NW swell off Baja California Norte is slowly subsiding this 
evening, with seas currently 6-8 ft. However, expect fresh to 
strong NW winds and building seas west of Baja California behind
the cold front Wed through Thu. Winds and seas should diminish 
on Fri west of the Baja California peninsula. Looking ahead, the 
next Tehuantepec N gap wind event should begin Fri night, with 
strong N winds. N winds will increase to near gale force by late 
Sun.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea 
along with troughing over the E equatorial Pacific waters 
continues to produce fresh to strong NE gap winds over the 
Papagayo region and fresh N winds over the Gulf of Panama N of 
06N, both of which were confirmed by afternoon ASCAT data. Seas 
are 5-8 ft in the Papagayo region. Recent altimeter data showed 
5-7 ft seas south of the Gulf of Panama. Seas of 3-5 ft are 
likely occurring elsewhere off western Panama and southern Costa 
Rica, while 4-6 ft seas are occurring off Colombia and Ecuador.

Evening satellite imagery showed two emissions of volcanic ash
from the Fuego Volcano in Guatemala. An ash cloud aloft reach the
Pacific coast at 0100 UTC between El Paredon and San Jose Rama
Blanca, and then extended SW and offshore about 30 nm. The ash
cloud has since become less well defined and is drifting
westward, and remains within 30 nm of the coast. Mariners across
the area should be alert for falling ash.

Fresh to strong NE gap winds will pulse mainly at night across 
the Papagayo region through Thu night, then diminish slightly Fri
through Sat. Moderate to fresh N winds will continue to pulse in
the Gulf of Panama at night through the weekend. Large seas 
generated across the offshore Papagayo area are forecast to 
propagate into the outer offshore waters of El Salvador through 
this evening and subside tonight. Moderate S winds off Ecuador 
should diminish to gentle this evening. Light to gentle winds 
will remain elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A ridge of high pressure extends from the NE Pacific through 
30N134W southeastward to 19N108W. This ridge is combining with 
lower pressure along the ITCZ to produce fresh NE to E trades 
mainly from 08N-24N west of 130W, and from 08N-17N between 115W-
130W. Seas are 8-10 ft within the fresh trade wind zone south of 
15N and west of 125W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere. A surface trough is
south of the ridge and extends from 15N119W to 11N120W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N TO 15.5N 
between 113W and 121W. 

Winds will change little through Wed. Wed night through Sat, 
building high pressure north of the area will boost the NE trades
to fresh to strong, especially from the ITCZ to 20N between
120W-130W. Large N swell will move S of 30N tonight and 
gradually reach the tradewind zone Thu and Fri, and combine with 
the NE wind waves from 10N-20N west of 120W. Seas should peak 
around 8-10 ft late Thu through Sat. New NW swell will reach the
western part of the area over the weekend, keeping 8-11 ft seas
across most of the area north of 05N and west 120W through at
least Sun night.

$$
Stripling


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