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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Overland Depression 5 (emnati) 
Message-ID: <20220223072421.B1D831C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2022 07:24:21 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 230636
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/5/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/23 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.4 S / 46.7 E
(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 610 SE: 555 SW: 465 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 405 SE: 335 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/23 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 535 SW: 360 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 335 SW: 175 NW: 215

24H: 2022/02/24 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 535 SW: 280 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 335 SW: 95 NW: 230

36H: 2022/02/24 18 UTC: 28.5 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 565 SW: 345 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 360 SW: 140 NW: 250

48H: 2022/02/25 06 UTC: 30.7 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 530 SE: 610 SW: 445 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 390 SW: 250 NW: 260

60H: 2022/02/25 18 UTC: 32.4 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 610 SE: 595 SW: 425 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 325 SE: 390 SW: 250 NW: 260
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 110

72H: 2022/02/26 06 UTC: 33.1 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 470 SW: 445 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 315

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/27 06 UTC: 35.8 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 535 SW: 380 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 250


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=/

EMNATI IS NOW EVOLVING ON THE MALAGASY LANDS SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING
2300 UTC. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS PROGRESSIVELY EXPANDED, WITH CLOUD
TOPS THAT HAVE WARMED UP SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE
SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE ACCELERATED SINCE ITS
LANDING. EMNATI IS THEREFORE IN A WEAKENING PHASE. THE ESTIMATED WIND
INTENSITY AND EXTENSIONS ARE BASED ON THE PARTIAL 0530Z ASCAT SWATH .

EMNATI KEEPS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THEN WILL TURN SOUTHWARD UNDER
THE EFFECT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-EAST THEN TO THE
EAST OF THE SYSTEM. EMNATI WILL THEREFORE MOVE ACROSS THE MALAGASY
LANDS AND MOVE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR BEFORE THURSDAY MORNING
AND WILL THEN SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS EXTRATROPICAL LATITUDES BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE SHORT
TERM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. EMNATI WILL EMERGE SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR AS A WEAKENED MODERATE TROPICAL STORM WITH A FAIRLY BROAD
CIRCULATION. WITH SEA TEMPERATURES CLEARLY DECREASING REFLECTING A
LOW OCEANIC POTENTIAL, THE PROGRESSIVE INCREASE OF THE WINDSHEAR
ALOFT COMBINED WITH AN ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR BY THE NORTH, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY LOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
ON FRIDAY, BUT KEEPING MAXIMUM WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KT IN
CONNECTION WITH BAROCLINIC PROCESSES. FROM SUNDAY ENMATI SHOULD
DEFINITIVELY COMPLETE ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, WITH AN
INCREASINGLY COLD CORE ALOFT, THUS CLASSIFYING THE SYSTEM AS AN
EXTRA-TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR :
-WINDS: PERSISTENCE OF STRONG GUSTS ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR
NOT FAR FROM THE IMPACT AREA AND UP TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS AMBOVOMBE.
DURING THE NEXT HOURS THE GUSTS COULD BLOW BETWEEN 130 AND 140 KM/H.
-RAINFALL: VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE TRAJECTORY, IN THE ORDER OF 150-300 MM IN 24 HOURS IN THE PLAINS
AND 300-600 MM ON THE RELIEF. THESE HEAVY RAINS CAN CREATE IMPORTANT
FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY WITH THE
EVACUATION OF EMNATI IN THE SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL.
-SEA : EVEN IF THE SEAS WILL TEND TO DECREASE TODAY, THE PERSISTENCE
THIS MORNING OF A COMBINATION OF A CYCLONIC SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH
WAVES CLOSE TO 10 METERS OFFSHORE AND SEA SURGE BETWEEN 50 CM AND 1M,
MAY STILL GENERATE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON THE COASTAL AREAS LOCATED
BETWEEN MAHANORO AND THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND.
-THE INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO BE VERY CAREFUL AND TO FOLLOW THE
INSTRUCTIONS OF THE AUTHORITIES.=

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