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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220223092333.D65101C0087@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2022 09:23:33 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 230923
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Feb 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0815 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough extends from 10N74.5W to 06N83W. The ITCZ extends from 
06.5N91W to 04N107W to 08N124W to beyond 07.5N140W. Widely scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is near the Colombian coast 
from 01N to 06.5N E of 80W. Scattered moderate convection is 
from 07N to 08N between 123W-140W, and from 13N to 15.5N between 
114W-119W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Low pressure over the U.S. Great Basin continues to combine with
strong high pressure well northwest of the area to promote fresh
to strong SW winds over the northern Gulf of California, ahead 
of an approaching cold front entering Baja California Norte. 
Gentle to moderate NW to N winds prevail across the central and 
southern Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are building 
across the Baja California offshore waters S of 30N, while fresh 
to strong westerly winds are occurring offshore of Baja Norte, 
just ahead of the cold front. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds 
are occurring along the Mexican coast from near Mazatlan to the 
Cabo Corrientes area. Light to gentle westerly winds are 
occurring from Manzanillo extending SE to the Guatemala border. 
Seas are 5-7 ft across the Pacific waters, except 7-8 ft off 
Baja Norte. Seas are 4-7 ft in the northern Gulf of California 
and 2-3 ft in the southern Gulf.

Strong to near gale force SW to W winds are expected across the 
northern Gulf of California overnight through midday Wed, with 
seas building to 8 ft late tonight into early Wed. A cold front 
moving into Baja Norte tonight will reach the northern Gulf of 
California by Wed afternoon. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow
the front and spread the full length of the Gulf on Thu. The 
fresh to strong NW winds will then persist in the Gulf through 
Sun, in the wake of the front. Seas will build up to 8 ft in the 
northern Gulf by midday Wed, and will be 6-8 ft across the 
southern and central Gulf of California late Thu into Fri. Fresh
to strong NW winds and building seas will spread across the
offshore waters of Baja California behind the approaching cold 
front Wed through Thu. Winds and seas should diminish on Fri west
of the Baja California peninsula. Looking ahead, the next 
Tehuantepec N gap wind event should begin Fri night, with strong 
N winds. N winds will increase to near gale force by late Sun.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea 
along with troughing over the E equatorial Pacific waters 
continues to produce fresh to strong NE gap winds over the 
Papagayo region and fresh N winds over the Gulf of Panama N of 
06N. Seas are 5-8 ft in the Papagayo region, and 4-6 ft south of
the Gulf of Panama. Seas of 3-5 ft are occurring elsewhere off 
western Panama and southern Costa Rica, while 4-6 ft seas are 
occurring off Colombia and Ecuador.

Evening satellite imagery showed two emissions of volcanic ash
from the Fuego Volcano in Guatemala. An ash cloud aloft reach the
Pacific coast at 0100 UTC between El Paredon and San Jose Rama
Blanca, and then extended SW and offshore about 30 nm. The ash
cloud has since drifted westward and dissipated. Additional ash
emissions from Fuego have occurred in the past few hours but are
moving westward and remaining over land. 

Fresh NE gap winds will pulse to strong at night across the 
Papagayo region through the next several days. Moderate N winds
will continue to pulse to fresh across the Gulf of Panama at 
night through the weekend. Seas to 7 ft generated across the 
offshore Papagayo area are forecast to propagate into the outer 
offshore waters of El Salvador overnight and subside Wed. 
Light to gentle winds will remain elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A ridge of high pressure extends from the NE Pacific through 
30N133W southeastward to 19N109W. This ridge is combining with 
lower pressure along the ITCZ to produce fresh NE to E trades 
mainly from 08N-22N west of 125W, and from 08N-18N between 115W-
125W. Seas are 8-10 ft within the fresh trade wind zone south of
15N and west of 125W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere. A surface trough is 
south of the ridge and extends from 11N-15N along 118W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted near the trough from 13N 
TO 15.5N between 114W and 119W.

Winds will change little through Wed. Wed night through Sat, 
building high pressure north of the area will boost the NE trades
to fresh to strong, especially from the ITCZ to 20N between
120W-130W. Large N swell will move S of 30N tonight and 
gradually reach the tradewind zone Thu and Fri, and combine with 
the NE wind waves from 10N-20N west of 120W. Seas should peak 
around 8-10 ft late Thu through Sat. New NW swell will reach the
western part of the area over the weekend, keeping 8-11 ft seas
across most of the area north of 05N and west 120W through at
least Sun night.

$$
Stripling


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