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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Message-ID: <20220223100926.3C9DE1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2022 10:09:26 +0000
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567 
AWIO20 FMEE 231005

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/02/23 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warning WTIO22 32/05 and WTIO30 FMEE 033/05 issued at 06UTC on overland depression EMNATI.

Next warnings at 12UTC.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The monsoon flow remains well present over the whole basin. On the western part, the monsoon flow feeds a convergence axis with the flow that goes up the Mozambique Channel favoring the convective activity present on the northern part of the North. The rest of the activity is located around the overland depression EMNATI.

Overland Depression EMNATI :

Position at 09UTC : 23.9oS / 45.5oE

Movement : WSW at 19 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 minutes : 40 kt

Estimated pressure at the center : 985 hPa
For more information, please refer to bulletins WTIO22 and WTIO30 issued at 06UTC and following.

The return of the Monsoon trough will define a large area of low pressure over the central part of the Indian Ocean, at the heart of which cyclogenesis will have a hard time setting up due to a lack of convergence in the lower layers. At the very end of the period, the environmental conditions could start to be a little less unfavorable but it is rather the possible entry into our basin of a moderate or strong tropical storm that could take place.

Therefore, the risk of a moderate tropical storm entering our eastern basin remains moderate for Sunday or Monday.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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