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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Overland Depression 5 (emnati) 
Message-ID: <20220223131804.C2D781C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2022 13:18:04 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 231237
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/5/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/23 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.3 S / 45.3 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 555 SE: 465 SW: 465 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 390 SW: 315 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/24 00 UTC: 25.9 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 455 SW: 390 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 195

24H: 2022/02/24 12 UTC: 27.6 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 490 SW: 370 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 335 SW: 165 NW: 240

36H: 2022/02/25 00 UTC: 30.0 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 520 SW: 350 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 360 SW: 250 NW: 240

48H: 2022/02/25 12 UTC: 31.9 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 555 SW: 455 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 390 SW: 345 NW: 240

60H: 2022/02/26 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 510 SW: 500 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 360 SW: 380 NW: 260

72H: 2022/02/26 12 UTC: 34.2 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 565 SW: 530 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 405 SW: 390 NW: 295

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/27 12 UTC: 37.2 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 545 SW: 380 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 415 SW: 315 NW: 240

120H: 2022/02/28 12 UTC: 41.5 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 185

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
EMNATI CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARDS . THE GENERAL CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM KEEPS A RATHER STRONG AMPLITUDE OVER A LARGE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE ISLAND BUT HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED SINCE THE END OF THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE LAST PARTIAL 0630Z ASCAT-B SWATH  AND REGULAR
OBSERVATIONS MADE AT FORT-DAUPHIN, THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
35KT. THE CONVECTION STILL OBSERVED AT 0600Z CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, HAS GRADUALLY DECAYED DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

EMNATI TRACK IS ORIENTED SOUTH-WESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWARDS FROM
THURSDAY UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-EAST
THEN OF A WEAKNESS OF THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. EMNATI WILL THEREFORE CROSS THE MALAGASY LANDS IN THE
VERY SHORT TERM AND WILL EMERGE IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN THE
SOUTH-WEST OF THE BIG ISLAND, PROBABLY BETWEEN THE CAPE OF
SAINTE-MARIE AND THE CITY OF ITAMPOLO, DURING THE NEXT NIGHT, BEFORE
EVACUATING TOWARDS THE EXTRATROPICAL LATITUDES AT THE END OF THE
WEEK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE WINDS WILL CERTAINLY CEILING DURING THE
PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM ON THE LAND. EMNATI SHOULD EMERGE IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AT THE MINIMAL STAGE OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM,
AND SHOULD KEEP A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. BACK AT SEA,
EMNATI SHOULD ENCOUNTER DEGRADED CONDITIONS, MARKED BY A LOW OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, A PROGRESSIVE INCREASE OF THE UPPER SHEAR COMBINED WITH AN
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH, THUS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL OF
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. MOREOVER, FROM FRIDAY EMNATI SHOULD
PROGRESSIVELY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, BUT STILL KEEPING
MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 40 TO 45 KT IN RELATION WITH BAROCLINIC
PROCESSES PRESENT ON THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE END OF THE
WEEKEND, BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, ENMATI SHOULD DEFINITIVELY COMPLETE
ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, WITH A CORE BECOMING COLDER ALOFT, AND
AN ASYMMETRY OF THE WINDS OF LOW LAYERS MORE MARKED, THUS CLASSIFYING
THE SYSTEM IN EXTRA-TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR :
-WINDS: PERSISTENCE OF STRONG GUSTS OF ABOUT 100 TO 110 KM/H ON THE
EAST AND SOUTH COAST OF MADAGASCAR DUE TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWESTWARDS. WITH THE ARRIVAL DURING THE NEXT NIGHT OF EMNATI IN
THE CHANNEL, THEN THE DISTANCE OF THIS ONE, THE GUSTS WILL DECREASE
PROGRESSIVELY BETWEEN 90 AND 100 KM/H WHILE REMAINING OFF THE SOUTH
OF THE BIG ISLAND.
-RAINS : RAINFALL IS STILL VERY IMPORTANT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE SYSTEM, ALONG THE EMNATI'S TRACK, WHICH GIVES HEAVY RAINFALL
BETWEEN 100 AND 300 MM IN 24 HOURS IN THE PLAIN, AND UP TO 300/500 MM
IN 24 HOURS ON THE HIGHLANDS OF THE EAST BETWEEN NOSY-VARIKA AND
AMBOVOMBE. THESE HEAVY RAINS CAN CREATE IMPORTANT FLOODS AND
LANDSLIDES. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THURSDAY AFTER THE EVACUATION OF
EMNATI IN THE SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL, HOWEVER, LESSER RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE SHIFTED (50/100 MM IN 24H) TO THE NORTHWEST COAST, BETWEEN
MORONDAVA AND TOLIARA, IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
-SEA : VERY ROUGH TO HEAVY SEA BETWEEN MANAKARA AND BETANTY,
RESULTING FROM A COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES
CLOSE TO 7 TO 10 METERS OFF EAST AND SOUTHEAST. A MAXIMUM SURGE CLOSE
TO 60/80 CM, CAN STILL GENERATE IMPORTANT SUBMERSIONS ON THE COASTAL
AREAS, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN MAHANORO AND MANANJARY. THE INHABITANTS ARE
INVITED TO BE VERY CAREFUL AND TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE
AUTHORITIES.=

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