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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220223160503.48CDD1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2022 16:05:03 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 231601
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Feb 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough extends from a 1010 mb low pres located over northern 
Colombia near 09N75W to 06N83W. The ITCZ extends from 05N93W to 
04N110W to 07N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is noted near 05N78W, and within about
75 nm N of the ITCZ W of 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Low pressure over the U.S. Great Basin continues to combine with
strong high pressure N of the area to promote fresh to strong SW
winds over the northern Gulf of California, ahead of an approaching
cold front entering Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate NW
to N winds prevail across the central and southern Gulf. Seas are 
5-8 ft in the northern Gulf of California and 2-3 ft in the 
southern Gulf. Fresh to strong NW winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft 
are noted N of 28N between 116W and 127W. Moderate to locally 
fresh NW winds are building across the Baja California offshore 
waters S of 28N with seas of 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh NW winds
are near Cabo Corrientes, spilling S along the offshore waters of 
of Jalisco with seas of 5-7 ft. 

Strong to near gale force SW to W winds are expected across the 
northern Gulf of California through tonight, with seas to 8 ft. 
A cold front moving into Baja California Norte  will reach the 
northern Gulf of California this afternoon. Fresh to strong NW 
winds will follow the front and spread the full length of the 
Gulf late on Thu. The fresh to strong NW winds will then persist
in the Gulf through Sun. Seas will be 6-8 ft across the southern
and central Gulf of California late Thu into Fri. Fresh to strong
NW winds and building seas will spread across the offshore 
waters of Baja California behind the approaching cold front 
through Thu. Winds and seas should diminish on Fri west of the 
Baja California peninsula. Looking ahead, the next Tehuantepec  
gap wind event should begin Fri night, with strong N winds. Winds
are forecast to increase to near gale force by late Sun.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea 
along with troughing over the E equatorial Pacific waters 
continues to produce fresh to strong NE gap winds over the 
Papagayo region and fresh N winds over the Gulf of Panama N of 
06N. Seas are 5-8 ft in the Papagayo region, and 4-6 ft south of
the Gulf of Panama. Seas of 3-5 ft are occurring elsewhere off 
western Panama and southern Costa Rica, while 4-6 ft seas are 
occurring off Colombia and Ecuador.

Latest volcanic ash advisory for the Fuego Volcano in Guatemala
indicates that the plume of volcanic ash will continue to move 
westward over land. 

Fresh NE gap winds will pulse to strong at night across the 
Papagayo region through the next several days. Moderate N winds
will continue to pulse to fresh across the Gulf of Panama at 
night through the weekend. Seas to 7 ft generated across the 
offshore Papagayo area will continue to propagate into the outer
offshore waters of El Salvador today. Light to gentle winds will
remain elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1030 mb located near 35N137W has a ridge
extending SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This ridge is 
combining with lower pressure along the ITCZ to produce fresh NE 
to E trades mainly from 08N-14N west of 130W, and from 10N-18N 
between 115W- 130W. Seas are 8-10 ft within the fresh trade wind
zone south of 15N and west of 125W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere. 

Building high pressure north of the area will boost the NE trades
to fresh to strong, especially from the ITCZ to 20N between 
120W-130W tonight through Sat. A northerly swell event will 
continue to affect the NE waters through late Thu. The next swell
event will reach the western part of the area over the weekend, 
keeping 8-11 ft seas across most of the area north of 05N and 
west 120W through at least Sun night.

$$
GR


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