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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Overland Depression 5 (emnati) 
Message-ID: <20220223185243.A2C361C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2022 18:52:43 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 231830
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 35/5/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/23 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.9 S / 44.1 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 650 SE: 555 SW: 465 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 405 SW: 260 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/24 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 530 SW: 390 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 345 SW: 205 NW: 140

24H: 2022/02/24 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 565 SW: 360 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 195

36H: 2022/02/25 06 UTC: 30.8 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 650 SE: 500 SW: 400 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 345 SW: 270 NW: 205

48H: 2022/02/25 18 UTC: 32.7 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 650 SE: 555 SW: 455 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 380 SW: 335 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 35

60H: 2022/02/26 06 UTC: 33.6 S / 43.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 585 SE: 565 SW: 535 NW: 445
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 400 SW: 380 NW: 250

72H: 2022/02/26 18 UTC: 34.7 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 650 SW: 595 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 445 SW: 405 NW: 240

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/27 18 UTC: 38.4 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 535 SW: 345 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 390 SW: 260 NW: 175

120H: 2022/02/28 18 UTC: 40.7 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 195

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE CENTER OF EMNATI IS BECOMING DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE POSITION IS
ESTIMATED WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY BASED ON EARLY EVENING MICROWAVE
IMAGERY, AND NEAR INFRARED IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. A LARGE AND ILL-DEFINED CENTER SEEMS TO BE ABOUT TO GO
OUT TO SEA BETWEEN TULEAR AND CAP SAINTE-MARIE. CLASSICALLY, AFTER A
LITTLE MORE THAN 18 HOURS ON LAND, THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY
VANISHED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 35 KT BY
PERSISTENCE.

EMNATI IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH-WESTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD
FROM THURSDAY UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH-EAST THEN OF A WEAKNESS OF THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, A BAROMETRIC
COL SITUATION SHOULD TEMPORARILY SLOW DOWN THE EVACUATION OF THE
SYSTEM WITHIN THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES BEFORE IT IS EFFECTIVE ON
SUNDAY-MONDAY.

BACK AT SEA, EMNATI SHOULD ENCOUNTER POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS,
MARKED BY A WEAK OCEANIC POTENTIAL, A PROGRESSIVE INCREASE OF THE
UPPER SHEAR COMBINED WITH AN ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH,
THUS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.
MOREOVER, FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARDS EMNATI SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY
LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, BUT WITH A STRENGTHENING OF THE
WINDS LINKED TO A BAROCLINIC INTRACTION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ARRIVING
FROM THE WEST. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK,
ENMATI SHOULD DEFINITIVELY COMPLETE ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION,
WITH A CORE BECOMING COLDER AND COLDER ALOFT, AND A MORE MARKED
ASYMMETRY OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS, THUS CLASSIFYING THE SYSTEM AS AN
EXTRA-TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE ADDITIONAL IMPACTS OF EMNATI ON MADAGASCAR ARE BECOMING RESIDUAL:

-WINDS : WINDS ARE DECREASING ON ALL THE COASTS EXCEPT ON THE REGION
BETWEEN FORT-DAUPHIN AND CAP SAINTE-MARIE WHERE THEY MAY STILL EXCEED
100 KM/H DURING THE NEXT HOURS BEFORE DECREASING BY THE END OF THE
NIGHT.

-RAINS : THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE NOW OVER MADAGASCAR. RESIDUAL RAINS
(LESS THAN 50 MM IN 24 HOURS) WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTS
BETWEEN MOROMBE AND TULEAR.=

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