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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Remnant Low 5 (emnati) 
Message-ID: <20220224005905.94C7B1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2022 00:59:05 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 240031
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/5/20212022
1.A REMNANT LOW 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/24 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.7 S / 42.8 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 630 SE: 760 SW: 405 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 390 SW: 260 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/24 12 UTC: 27.2 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 535 SW: 345 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 305 SW: 155 NW: 175

24H: 2022/02/25 00 UTC: 29.7 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 675 SW: 345 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 405 SW: 185 NW: 215

36H: 2022/02/25 12 UTC: 31.9 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 620 SW: 555 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 370 SW: 380 NW: 215

48H: 2022/02/26 00 UTC: 33.5 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 630 SE: 675 SW: 415 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 415 SW: 380 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 335 NW: 0

60H: 2022/02/26 12 UTC: 34.9 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 530 SE: 595 SW: 510 NW: 490
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 370 SW: 380 NW: 280

72H: 2022/02/27 00 UTC: 36.0 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 695 SW: 480 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 445 SW: 350 NW: 220

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/28 00 UTC: 39.4 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 390 SW: 205 NW: 270

120H: 2022/03/01 00 UTC: 41.3 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DISSIPATING
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 230 SW: 240 NW: 155

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
NEAR INFRARED AND AMSUB IMAGERY OF THE 1859Z METOP-B PASS HAS ALLOWED
TO LOCATE A POORLY DEFINED CENTER LOCATED NEAR SOUTHWEST OF TULEAR.
SINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN FOLLOWED IN NEAR INFRARED IMAGERY. IT
REMAINS ILL-DEFINED. RESIDUAL RAINSTORM ACTIVITY IS PRESENT ONLY IN
THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE, FAR FROM THE CENTER. WHILE WAITING FOR A
POSSIBLE MORE IMPORTANT THUNDERSTORM CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
CENTER, THE SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS A REMNANT LOW. THE ASCAT-B,
ASCAT-C AND SMAP PARTIAL PASS OF THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT, SUGGEST
THAT MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL PRESENT.

NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WITH A FAIRLY WELL STABILIZED
SCENARIO: THE TRACK OF EMNATI IS GRADUALLY TURNING SOUTHWARD TODAY,
UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN A
WEAKNESS OF HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, A BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION SHOULD TEMPORARILY
SLOW DOWN THE EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES
BEFORE IT IS EFFECTIVE ON SUNDAY-MONDAY.

BACK AT SEA, EMNATI SHOULD ENCOUNTER POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS,
MARKED BY A WEAK OCEANIC POTENTIAL, A PROGRESSIVE INCREASE OF THE
DEEP VERTICAL WINDSHEAR COMBINED WITH AN ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM
THE NORTH, THUS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM. DURING THE NEXT 12-18H, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MORE VIGOROUS
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE CIRCULATION, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM
TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN. GIVEN THE CONTEXT
DESCRIBED ABOVE, THIS EVENTUALITY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO.
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY EMNATI SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY LOSE ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH A STRENGTHENING OF THE WINDS LINKED TO
A BAROCLINIC INTRACTION (UPPER TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST). AT THE
END OF THE WEEKEND, BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, ENMATI SHOULD
DEFINITIVELY COMPLETE ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WHILE THE SYSTEM
SHOULD MERGE INTO A COLD FRONT.

EMNATI NO LONGER GENERATES SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS.=

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