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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220224032954.96F641C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2022 03:29:54 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 240329
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Feb 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough extends from a 1008 mb low pres located over northern 
Colombia near 10N74W to 06.5N78W to 05N86W. The ITCZ extends 
from 05N86W to 04N108W to 07N125W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within about 90 nm
N of the ITCZ W of 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A cold front continues moving SE across the northern Gulf of 
California and Baja California this evening, extending from NW
Mexico across the Gulf of California's Tiburon Basin then across
central portions of the Baja Peninsula and exits into the Pacific
near Punta Prieta where it becomes ill defined. Fresh to strong 
W winds are noted both N and S of the front between 27.5N and 30N
across the Gulf, while strong NW winds to near 30 kt are spilling
into far N portions of the Gulf to the N of 31N. Seas across this
area are assumed to have built to 4-7 ft in recent hours. Gentle
to moderate NW to N winds prevail across the remainder of the 
Gulf of California. Across the Pacific offshore waters of Baja
Norte, fresh to strong NW winds are building behind the front and
producing seas of 8 to 11 ft in NW swell. Moderate to fresh NW 
winds are across the Baja California offshore waters S of the
front where seas are 5-7 ft. Further S, moderate N winds prevail
offshore to Bucerias, except fresh to strong across the waters
surrounding Cabo Corrientes. Seas of 4-7 ft prevail there. 

Strong W to NW winds are expected across the northern Gulf of 
California on either side of the cold front through tonight, with
seas building to 6-8 ft. The fresh to strong winds off Baja 
California Norte will spread south affecting the entire Baja 
California offshore waters overnight. These winds will dominate 
mainly the waters S of Punta Eugenia by Thu morning. Seas 
associated with this front will spread southward across the area
between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia tonight and Thu while 
subsiding. Looking ahead, the next Tehuantepec gap wind event 
should begin Fri night, with strong N winds. Winds are forecast 
to increase to minimal gale force Sun night through Mon night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Weakening high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and 
Caribbean Sea continues to combine with troughing over the E 
equatorial Pacific waters to produce a modest area of fresh to 
strong NE gap winds over the Papagayo region extending offshore
to near 88W, while fresh N winds are over the Gulf of Panama N 
of 07N. Seas are 5-7 ft in the Papagayo region, and 4-5 ft south
of the Gulf of Panama. Seas of 3-5 ft are occurring elsewhere. 

Pulsing fresh to strong NE winds are expected across the 
Papagayo region each night through Sun night as high pressure 
remains N of the area. Moderate N winds will continue to pulse to
fresh across the Gulf of Panama at night through the weekend. 
Light to gentle winds will remain elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1030 mb is located near 35N134W has a ridge 
extending SE beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. This ridge is 
combining with lower pressure along the ITCZ to produce fresh NE 
to E trades mainly from 07N-15N west of 128W, and from 12N-18N 
between 115W-128W. Seas are 8-10 ft within the fresh trade wind 
zone.

An area of fresh to strong trades will persist over the west-
central waters over the next couple of days as a high pressure 
center persists just N of the forecast waters. Northerly swell 
will continue to affect the NE waters through late Thu. The next
significant NW swell event will reach the western part of the 
forecast region over the weekend, keeping 8-11 ft seas across 
most of the area north of 05N and west 120W through at least Sun 
night.

$$
Stripling


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