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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Remnant Low 5 (emnati) 
Message-ID: <20220224065528.A9D551C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2022 06:55:28 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 240640
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 37/5/20212022
1.A REMNANT LOW 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/24 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5 S / 42.6 E
(TWENTY SIX    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 555 SW: 445 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 390 SW: 335 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/24 18 UTC: 28.9 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 630 SW: 335 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 405 SW: 195 NW: 195

24H: 2022/02/25 06 UTC: 31.1 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 610 SW: 455 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 405 SW: 295 NW: 215

36H: 2022/02/25 18 UTC: 33.4 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 545 SW: 510 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 370 SW: 360 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 100

48H: 2022/02/26 06 UTC: 34.7 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 565 SW: 575 NW: 455
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 390 SW: 405 NW: 260

60H: 2022/02/26 18 UTC: 35.7 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 620 SW: 535 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 435 SW: 405 NW: 240

72H: 2022/02/27 06 UTC: 37.9 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 565 SW: 445 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 405 SW: 345 NW: 215

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/28 06 UTC: 40.1 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 240


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES HAVE CONFIRMED THAT THE EMNATI INNER CORE IS
VERY POORLY DEFINED SINCE ITS EXIT ON THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. WE CAN
INDEED SEE THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST 3 VORTICES ROTATING AROUND THE
DEPRESSION CENTER CURRENTLY TRACKED. THIS MORNING SMAP/HY-2B AND
ASCAT DATA HAVE CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF GALES. THE INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 35KT EVEN IF IT MAY BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE. A BUOY
(1601639) ABOUT 70MN FROM THE CENTER IS CURRENTLY MEASURING A
PRESSURE OF 997HPA IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ESTIMATED 994HPA.

NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WITH A FAIRLY WELL STABILIZED
SCENARIO: THE TRACK OF EMNATI IS GRADUALLY TURNING SOUTHWARD TODAY,
UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN A
WEAKNESS OF HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, A BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION SHOULD TEMPORARILY
SLOW DOWN THE EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES
BEFORE IT IS EFFECTIVE ON SUNDAY-MONDAY.

BACK AT SEA, EMNATI SHOULD ENCOUNTER POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS,
MARKED BY A WEAK OCEANIC POTENTIAL, A PROGRESSIVE INCREASE OF THE
DEEP VERTICAL WINDSHEAR COMBINED WITH AN ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM
THE NORTH, THUS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL INTENSIFICATION OF
THE SYSTEM. DURING THE NEXT 24H, EMNATI IS EXPECTED TO START LOOSING
ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH A STRENGTHENING OF THE WINDS
RELATED TO A BAROCLINIC INTRACTION (UPPER TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE
WEST). AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND, BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, ENMATI
SHOULD DEFINITIVELY COMPLETE ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WHILE THE
SYSTEM SHOULD MERGE INTO A COLD FRONT.=

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