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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220224090945.6F5AE1C0087@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2022 09:09:45 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 240909
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Feb 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough extends from a 1008 mb low pres located over northern 
Colombia near 09.5N75W to 04N79W to 05.5N89W. The ITCZ extends 
from 05.5N89W to 07N125W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 08.5N from
127-140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 14N
between 117.5W and 124.5W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A cold front continues moving SE across the northern Gulf of 
California and Baja California tonight, extending from NW Mexico
across the central Gulf of California and across central 
portions of the Baja Peninsula and exits into the Pacific just S
of San Juanico, where it becomes ill defined. Fresh to strong NW
winds are noted across the Gulf, while strong NW to winds
to near 30 kt continue to spill into far N portions of the Gulf 
to the N of 30N. Seas across this area are assumed to have built 
to 5-8 ft in recent hours. Moderate NW to N winds prevail across
the remainder of the Gulf of California. Across the Pacific 
offshore waters of Baja, fresh to strong NNW winds have built 
along the entire length of the peninsula, with strongest winds 
within 60 nm of the coast. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in NW swell from 
Punta Eugenia northward and 6-8 ft southward to 20N. Further S, 
moderate to fresh N winds prevail to offshore of Manzanillo, 
except fresh to strong across the waters surrounding Cabo 
Corrientes. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail there.

Fresh to strong winds will dominate the Gulf of California
through the upcoming weekend, except becoming moderate to fresh
far N portions. Seas will build 5-8 ft S of the Tiburon Basin
today through Sun night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will 
prevail across the Baja offshore waters S of Punta Eugenia 
through late this morning, while winds diminish to moderate to 
the north. Seas associated with this front in excess of 8 ft will
spread southward across the area between Punta Eugenia and Cabo 
San Lucas through Thu evening and then quickly subside below 8 ft
by Fri morning. Moderate to locally fresh winds and modest seas 
will prevail across the Baja offshores through Sun. Looking 
ahead, the next Tehuantepec gap wind event should begin Fri, 
producing strong N winds. Winds there will pulse through Sun 
before increasing to minimal gale force Sun night through Mon 
night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Weakening high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and 
Caribbean Sea continues to combine with troughing over the E 
equatorial Pacific waters to produce a modest area of fresh to 
strong NE gap winds over the Papagayo region extending offshore
to near 89W, while fresh N winds are over the Gulf of Panama N 
of 05N. Seas are 5-6 ft in the Papagayo region, and 4-6 ft south
of the Gulf of Panama. Seas of 3-5 ft are occurring elsewhere. 

Pulsing fresh to strong NE winds are expected across the 
Papagayo region each night through Sun night as high pressure 
remains N of the area. Moderate N winds will continue to pulse to
fresh across the Gulf of Panama at night through the weekend. 
Light to gentle winds will remain elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1030 mb is located near 34N134W and has a ridge
extending SE to just beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. This 
ridge is combining with lower pressure along the ITCZ to produce 
fresh NE to E trades mainly from 08N-23N west of 120W, and
moderate NE winds elsewhere W of 110W. Seas are 8-10 ft within 
the fresh trade wind zone.

The zone of fresh to strong trades will persist over the west- 
central waters over the next couple of days as a high pressure 
center persists just N of the forecast waters. Northerly swell 
will continue to affect the NE waters through late Thu. An middle
to upper level trough is forecast to sink into the tropics along
125W by Sat, and will support active convection there N of the
ITCZ between about 118W and 128W through the weekend. Strong NE
trades can also be expected there. New NW swell will reach the 
western part of the forecast region over the weekend, keeping 
8-11 ft seas across most of the area north of 05N and west 120W 
through at least Sun night.

$$
Stripling


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