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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian Ocean 
Message-ID: <20220224101702.13EF71C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2022 10:17:02 +0000
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ABIO10 PGTW 240730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/240730Z-241800ZFEB2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231951ZFEB2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 23FEB22 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 24.7S 43.5E, APPROXIMATELY 236 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA
ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45
KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 232100) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.7S 128.4E, APPROXIMATELY 143 NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA..
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231030Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE REVEAL A FLARING, DEEP CONVECTIVE BURST OF A SLOW,
ANTICYCLONICALLY TURNING MASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT
THE INVEST IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
DEFINED BY PRONOUNCED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, FAVORABLE (10-15KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30-31) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PT. FAWCETT IN THE TIMOR SEA RECORDED
SUSTAINED 18KT NORTHERLY WINDS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE INTENSIFICATION AND GENERALLY QUASISTATIONARY MOVEMENT
OF 99S OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.8S 96.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 96.1E, APPROXIMATELY 66
NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATNG OVER A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED AND WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED A VERY SMALL CIRCULATION WITH
25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING THE CENTER. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE(15-
20KTS) EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT,
AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL TRACK WESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN 2.B.(2) TO LOW.//
NNNN


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