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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Message-ID: <20220224115846.3A0BF1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2022 11:58:46 +0000
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612 
AWIO20 FMEE 241128

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/02/24 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warning WTIO22 35/05 and WTIO30 FMEE 036/05 issued at 06UTC on post-tropical depression EMNATI.

Next warnings at 12UTC.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The monsoon flow is well present over the whole basin. In the western part, it feeds a convergence axis with the flow that goes up the Mozambique Channel favoring the convective activity present on the northern part of the channel. Over the central part of the Indian Ocean, the Monsoon trough is re-established and will define a large area of low pressure at the heart of which cyclogenesis will have great difficulty in setting up because of a lack of convergence of low layers.

However, over the eastern part of the basin (outside our area of responsibility), conditions are once again favourable for cyclogenesis and the Australian weather service has started to track a Tropical Depression (22U) currently located 100km southeast of the Cocos Islands. It is expected to enter our basin as a Moderate Tropical Storm by the end of next weekend. For more information please refer to the BOM bulletin IDW27700. No inhabited land is threatened by the development of this new system but there is a significant risk that a moderate tropical storm will enter our basin by the end of the weekend.

In addition, EMNATI is now a post-tropical depression and continues to evacuate towards the south:

Post-Tropical Depression EMNATI :

Position at 09UTC : 27.1oS / 42.1oE

Movement : SSW at 15 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 minutes : 35 kt

Estimated pressure at the center : 994 hPa

For more information, please refer to bulletins WTIO22 and WTIO30 issued at 06UTC and following.

In summary, the risk of entry of a moderate tropical storm over the east of our basin is high (>60%) for the end of the weekend.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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