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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean) 
Message-ID: <20220224132118.089F61C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2022 13:21:17 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 241317 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 38/5/20212022
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/24 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.4 S / 42.3 E
(TWENTY SEVEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 500 SW: 445 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 390 SW: 335 NW: 240

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/25 00 UTC: 30.4 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 565 SW: 390 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 390 SW: 270 NW: 205

24H: 2022/02/25 12 UTC: 32.7 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 535 SW: 500 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 380 SW: 370 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 35

36H: 2022/02/26 00 UTC: 34.5 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 565 SW: 490 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 400 SW: 380 NW: 230

48H: 2022/02/26 12 UTC: 35.6 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 600 SW: 535 NW: 480
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 425 SW: 390 NW: 270

60H: 2022/02/27 00 UTC: 37.4 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 610 SW: 520 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 445 SW: 400 NW: 215

72H: 2022/02/27 12 UTC: 38.6 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 510 SW: 415 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 380 SW: 315 NW: 205

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/28 12 UTC: 43.1 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 55


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CIRCULATION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
ASYMMETRIES WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONTAINED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
UNDER THE EFFECT OF A STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR (30KT ACCORDING TO THE
CIMSS). THE VISIBLE IMAGES STILL SHOW THE PRESENCE OF SEVERAL
VORTICES IN THE VAST INNER CORE OF THE CIRCULATION, MAKING DIFFICULT
TO LOCATE THE EXACT CENTER. AS A CONSEQUENCE, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
ANALYZED AS A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 12Z AND DOWNGRADED
EX-EMNATI.

NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WITH A FAIRLY WELL STABILIZED
SCENARIO: THE TRACK OF EMNATI IS GRADUALLY TURNING SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND THEN A WEAKNESS OF HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, A BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION SHOULD
TEMPORARILY SLOW DOWN THE EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE MID-LAT
WESTERLIES BEFORE IT IS EFFECTIVE ON SUNDAY-MONDAY, NEAR THE CROZET
ARCHIPELAGO.

THE STRENGTHENING OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SUPPORTED BY THE DECAY
OF THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL STARTED THE EXTRATROPICALISATION PHASE. THE
BAROCLINIC INTERACTION (UPPER TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST) SHOULD
FAVOR THE INCREASE OF THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PART. AT THE
END OF THE WEEKEND, BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, ENMATI SHOULD
DEFINITIVELY COMPLETE ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WHILE THE SYSTEM
SHOULD MERGE INTO A COLD FRONT.

THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM, EXCEPT TROPICAL
REINTENSIFICATION. IT WILL STILL BE MONITORED BY THE AWIO20 BULLETIN=

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