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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian Ocean 
Message-ID: <20220224135523.E8E011C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2022 13:55:23 +0000
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ABIO10 PGTW 241330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/241400Z-241800ZFEB2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231951ZFEB2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241351ZFEB2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYLCONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 23FEB22 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 24.7S 43.5E, APPROXIMATELY 236 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA
ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45
KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 232100) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
        AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.1S 128.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 128.6E, APPROXIMATELY 132NM
WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 241017Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS DISORGANIZED AND
DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE INVEST IS IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY PRONOUNCED EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, WARM (30-31) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (05-10KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT INCREASING RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER AS DEPICTED ON CCIMS WIND SHEAR
PRODUCT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
INTENSIFICATION AND GENERALLY QUASISTATIONARY MOVEMENT OF 99S OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.0S 96.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 95.9E, APPROXIMATELY 84NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. A 241159Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHILE ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS TWIN CONVECTIVE TOWERS SPIRALING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
VORTEX. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BURGEONING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL TRACK WESTWARD AS IT
CONSOLIDATES AND CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE  NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO HIGH. SEE REF B(WTXS21 PGTW 241400) FOR FUTHER DETAILS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM AND
UPGRADED AREA IN 2.B.(2) TO HIGH.//
NNNN


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