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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220224153836.619EC1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2022 15:38:36 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 241538
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Feb 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough extends from a 1010 mb low pres located over northern 
Colombia near 09.5N75W to 04N88W. The ITCZ continues from 04N88W
to 05N115W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 2.5N to 5.5N E of 79W to the coast of 
Colombia. Similar convective activity is seen from 06N to 09N 
between 130W and 138W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja
California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and trough
along the W coast of Mexico supports fresh to strong NW to n
winds across the waters S of Punta Eugenia. Northerly swell
continues to propagate across the offshore waters N of Punta
Eugenia with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range. In the central Gulf of
California fresh to locally strong NW winds prevail with seas of
up to 6 ft. 

Fresh to strong winds will dominate the Gulf of California
through the upcoming weekend, except becoming moderate to fresh
far N portions. Seas will build to 5-7 ft S of the Tiburon Basin
through Sun night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail 
across the Baja offshore waters S of Punta Eugenia through late 
this morning, while winds diminish to moderate to the north. Seas
in excess of 8 ft will spread southward across the area between 
Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lucas through this evening and then 
quickly subside below 8 ft by Fri morning. Moderate to locally 
fresh winds and modest seas will prevail across the Baja 
offshores through Sun. Looking ahead, the next Tehuantepec gap 
wind event should begin Fri, producing strong N winds. Winds 
there will pulse through Sun before increasing to minimal gale 
force Sun night through Mon night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Weakening high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and 
Caribbean Sea continues to combine with troughing over the E 
equatorial Pacific waters to produce a modest area of fresh to 
strong NE gap winds over the Papagayo region extending offshore
to near 89W, while fresh N winds are over the Gulf of Panama N 
of 05N. Seas are 5-7 ft in the Papagayo region, and 4-6 ft south
of the Gulf of Panama. Seas of 3-5 ft are occurring elsewhere. 

Pulsing fresh to strong NE winds are expected across the 
Papagayo region each night through Sun night as high pressure 
remains N of the area. Moderate N winds will continue to pulse to
fresh across the Gulf of Panama at night through the weekend. 
Light to gentle winds will remain elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1028 mb is located near 31N135W and has a ridge
extending SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This ridge is 
combining with lower pressure along the ITCZ to produce fresh NE 
to E trades mainly from 08N-20N west of 120W, and moderate NE 
winds elsewhere W of 110W. Seas are 8-10 ft within the fresh 
trade wind zone.

The zone of fresh to strong trades will persist over the west- 
central waters over the next couple of days as a high pressure 
center persists just N of the forecast waters. Northerly swell 
will continue to affect the NE waters through late today. A middle
to upper level trough is forecast to sink into the tropics along
125W by Sat, and will support active convection there N of the 
ITCZ between about 118W and 128W through the weekend. Strong NE 
trades can also be expected there. New NW swell will reach the 
western part of the forecast region over the weekend, keeping 
8-11 ft seas across most of the area north of 05N and west 120W 
through at least Sun night.

$$
GR


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