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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220224211316.10B4B1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2022 21:13:15 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 242113
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Feb 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough extends from a 1009 mb low pres located over northern 
Colombia near 09.5N75W to 05N88W. The ITCZ continues from 05N88W
to 06N120W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 2.5N to 5.5N E of 80W to the coast of 
Colombia, and from 06N to 09N between 130W and 138W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing moderate to fresh NW to N winds along the entire length
of the peninsula based on recent satellite derived wind data. 
Northerly swell continues to propagate across the offshore waters
N of Punta Eugenia, with seas in the 8 to 9 ft range. In the 
Gulf of California, fresh to locally strong NW winds prevail S of
27N with seas of 5-7 ft. Mainly moderate NW to N winds prevail 
along the remainder of the Gulf with seas of 3-5 ft. Light and 
variable winds are noted across the remainder of the coast of 
Mexico, with the exception of moderate to locally fresh NW winds
offshore the coasts of Colima and Jalisco. Seas are 3-5 ft in 
that area.

Fresh to strong winds will dominate the Gulf of California through
the upcoming weekend, except becoming moderate to fresh far N 
portions. Seas will build to 5-7 ft S of the Tiburon Island 
through Sun night. Seas in excess of 8 ft will spread southward 
across the area between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lucas through 
this evening and then quickly subside below 8 ft by Fri morning. 
Moderate to locally fresh winds and modest seas will prevail 
across the Baja offshores through Sun. Looking ahead, the next 
Tehuantepec gap wind event should begin Fri, producing strong N 
winds. Winds there will pulse through Sun before increasing to 
minimal gale force Sun night through Mon night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Weakening high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and 
Caribbean Sea continues to combine with a trough over the E 
equatorial Pacific waters to produce a modest area of fresh to 
strong NE gap winds over the Papagayo region extending offshore 
to near 89W, while fresh N winds are over the Gulf of Panama N of
05N. Seas are 5-7 ft in the Papagayo region, and 4-6 ft south of
the Gulf of Panama. Seas of 3-5 ft are occurring elsewhere. 

Pulsing fresh to strong NE winds are expected across the Papagayo
region each night through Sun night as high pressure remains N 
of the area. Moderate N winds will continue to pulse to fresh 
across the Gulf of Panama at night through Mon night. Light to 
gentle winds will remain elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1032 mb is located near 31N132W and has a ridge
extending SE to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. This ridge is 
combining with lower pressure along the ITCZ to produce fresh to
locally strong NE to E trades mainly from 08N-20N west of 120W, 
and from 11N to 16N between 114W and 120W. Seas are 8-10 ft 
within the fresh trade wind zone based on altimeter data. A surface
trough is along 125W from 06N to 13N. Scattered moderate convection
is near the northern end of the trough axis from 11N to 16N between
120W and 126W.

The zone of fresh to strong trades will persist over the west- 
central waters over the next couple of days as a high pressure 
center persists just N of the forecast waters near 32N130W. 
Northerly swell will continue to affect the NE waters this
evening and then quickly subside below 8 ft by Fri morning.
The aforementioned surface trough will support active convection
N of the ITCZ between about 120W and 132W through the weekend. 
A new set of long period NW swell will reach the western part of
the forecast region over the weekend, keeping 8-11 ft seas 
across most of the area north of 05N and west 120W through at 
least Sun night.

$$
GR


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