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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert// 
Message-ID: <20220224215449.1C0C41C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2022 21:54:48 +0000
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WTXS22 PGTW 242200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241400ZFEB22//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 115 NM RADIUS OF 12.5S 128.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 241800Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 128.4E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.9S 128.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 128.4E, APPROXIMATELY
400NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241938Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS ELONGATED,
DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 241339 ASCAT-B PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWS 25-30 KT WINDS
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT THE INVEST IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY PRONOUNCED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30-
31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THESE ARE OFFSET BY UNFAVORABLE (25-
30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS DEPICTED ON THE 1800Z CIMSS DEEP LAYER
WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS. OBSERVATIONS FROM PT. FAWCETT REPORT 15KT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM MEANDERS IN THE GULF OF BONAPARTE OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
252200Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 96.1E (WTXS21 PGTW 241400).
//
NNNN


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