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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian Ocean 
Message-ID: <20220225005107.38F401C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2022 00:51:07 +0000
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 250030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/250030Z-251800ZFEB2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241951ZFEB2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241351ZFEB2022//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/242151ZFEB2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYLCONE FORMATION ALERT. REF C IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 24FEB22 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 28.7S 41.8E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
EUROPA ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 242100) FOR
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1)THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.9S 128.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 128.4E, APPROXIMATELY
400NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241938Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS ELONGATED,
DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 241339 ASCAT-B PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWS 25-30 KT WINDS
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT THE INVEST IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY PRONOUNCED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30-
31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THESE ARE OFFSET BY UNFAVORABLE (25-
30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS DEPICTED ON THE 1800Z CIMSS DEEP LAYER
WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS. OBSERVATIONS FROM PT. FAWCETT REPORT 15KT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM MEANDERS IN THE GULF OF BONAPARTE OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE
REF C (WTXS21 PGTW 242200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S; PREVIOUSLY 90S)
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED  NEAR 13.0S 96.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S
95.9E, APPROXIMATELY 84NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. A 241159Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHILE ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TWIN CONVECTIVE TOWERS
SPIRALING INTO THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, BURGEONING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL
TRACK WESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE  NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 241400) FOR
FUTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.
ISSUED FINAL WARNING FOR AREA IN PARA 2.A.(1). CORRECTED NUMBERING
OF AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2).
NNNN


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