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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Australia: At: 0131 Utc 25/02/2022 
Message-ID: <20220225013158.CBA101C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2022 01:31:58 +0000
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AXAU01 ADRM 250131
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0131 UTC 25/02/2022
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 23U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 12.4S
Longitude: 127.8E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: northwest (316 deg)
Speed of Movement: 1 knots (3 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06/HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm (185 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  25/0600: 12.5S 127.9E:     040 (080):  030  (055):  998
+12:  25/1200: 12.7S 128.0E:     055 (100):  030  (055):  998
+18:  25/1800: 12.9S 127.9E:     070 (125):  040  (075):  992
+24:  26/0000: 13.1S 127.9E:     080 (145):  040  (075):  992
+36:  26/1200: 13.6S 127.8E:     100 (185):  045  (085):  989
+48:  27/0000: 13.8S 127.6E:     135 (250):  050  (095):  985
+60:  27/1200: 13.8S 127.5E:     165 (305):  050  (095):  985
+72:  28/0000: 13.8S 127.5E:     180 (330):  050  (095):  985
+96:  01/0000: 14.5S 126.4E:     230 (430):  035  (065):  996
+120: 02/0000: 15.3S 124.4E:     320 (590):  035  (065):  997
REMARKS:
23U has been located by geo-stationary satellite imagery. It is also visible on
the edge of Wyndham and Darwin radar coverage. The elevated circulation seen on
radar is assumed to be displaced slightly down-shear of the LLCC. 

The satellite signature of tropical low 23U improved for a short period just
prior to 00Z, with improved apparent curvature. No dominant persistent curved
band has yet emerged.  Dvorak analysis has increased to FT/CI 2.0 based on
MET/PAT. Intensity is set at 30 knots (10 minute mean) based on past
scatterometery. There are no objective intensity estimates available yet.  

The environment surrounding 23U is difficult to diagnose. CIMSS wind shear
analysis currently suggests moderate to strong (25-30 knot) easterly shear near
the system centre, however it is close to a strong shear gradient with the
upper anticyclone centre just east over the Northern Territory. There is some
evidence of easterly shear in the satellite imagery. Otherwise, SSTs are
favourable in excess of 30 degrees. There is some drier air to the south over
the Australian continent but this should not be a mitigating factor to
development in the short to medium term. 

Available NWP guidance all suggests development. Therefore 23U is forecast to
reach TC intensity late Friday or early Saturday. As a small system it may
intensify reasonably rapidly if conditions improve.

The steering influences on 23U include a mid-level anticyclone over Western
Australia, and lower level monsoonal westerly flow to the north. Given these
opposing influences, in the short term, models agree that 23U is likely to be
slow moving to the south and remain in the Timor Sea, possibly becoming near
stationary on Sunday.  

Latest guidance has reduced the chance of an easterly movement, which has been
reflected in the forecast track and reduction in easterly extent of the
Confidence Cones for +48 hours and onwards. The system could still move east,
cross the western Northern Territory coast continue towards the Gulf of
Carpentaria, but the chance of this is less than before. The more likely track
is to the southwest, taking it near the west Kimberley coast. The intensity
forecast is based on the forecast track over land. If it remains offshore,
intensity is likely to be higher. 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/0730 UTC.


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