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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220225033423.EFC701C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2022 03:34:23 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 250334
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Feb 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough extends from a 1008 mb low pres located over northern 
Colombia near 09.5N75W to 05N88W. The ITCZ continues from 05N88W 
to 06N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 5N to 10N between 126W to 139W.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing moderate to fresh NW to N winds along the entire length
of the peninsula based on recent satellite derived wind data. 
Northerly swell continues to propagate across the offshore waters
N of Punta Eugenia, with seas in the 8 to 9 ft range. In the 
Gulf of California, fresh to locally strong NW winds prevail S of
27N with seas of 5-7 ft. Mainly moderate NW to N winds prevail 
along the remainder of the Gulf with seas of 3-5 ft. Light and 
variable winds are noted across the remainder of the coast of 
Mexico, with the exception of moderate to locally fresh NW winds
offshore the coasts of Colima and Jalisco. Seas are 3-5 ft in 
that area.

Fresh to strong winds will dominate the Gulf of California through
the upcoming weekend, except becoming moderate to fresh in the far
N portions of the Gulf. Seas will build to 5-7 ft S of the Tiburon
Island through Sun night. Seas in excess of 8 ft will spread 
southward across the area between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lucas
through tonight and then quickly subside below 8 ft by Fri morning.
Moderate to locally fresh winds and modest seas will prevail across
the Baja offshores through Sun. Looking ahead, the next Tehuantepec
gap wind event should begin Fri, producing strong N winds. Winds
there will pulse through Sun before increasing to minimal gale force
Sun night through Mon night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Weakening high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and 
Caribbean Sea continues to combine with a trough over the E 
equatorial Pacific waters to produce a modest area of fresh to 
strong NE gap winds over the Papagayo region extending offshore 
to near 89W, while fresh N winds are over the Gulf of Panama N of
05N. Seas are 5-7 ft in the Papagayo region, and 4-6 ft south of
the Gulf of Panama. Seas of 3-5 ft are occurring elsewhere. 

Pulsing fresh to strong NE winds are expected across the Papagayo
region each night through Sun night as high pressure remains N 
of the area. Moderate N winds will continue to pulse to fresh 
across the Gulf of Panama at night through Mon night. Light to 
gentle winds will remain elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1029 mb is located near 31N131W and has a ridge
extending SE to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. This ridge is 
combining with lower pressure along the ITCZ to produce fresh to 
locally strong NE to E trades mainly from 06N-22N west of 120W, 
and from 11N to 16N between 114W and 120W. Seas are 8-10 ft within
the fresh trade wind zone based on altimeter data. A broad area of
cloudiness with a mix of low and mid level clouds is noted from 10N
to 23N between 126W to 128W. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms can not be ruled out in this area especially between
116W to 121W and from 10N to 16N.

As high pressure remains in control over the region, fresh to 
strong trades will persist over the west-central waters over the
next couple of days, just N of the forecast waters near 32N130W.
Northerly swell will continue to affect the NE waters tonight  
and then quickly subside below 8 ft by Fri morning. Convection N
of the ITCZ between about 120W and 132W will continue through the
weekend. A new set of long period NW swell will begin to make its 
way into the western part of the forecast region by this weekend,
keeping 8-11 ft seas across most of the area north of 05N and west
120W through at least Sun night.

$$
Torres


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