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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian Ocean 
Message-ID: <20220225060145.2A35D1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2022 06:01:45 +0000
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ABIO10 PGTW 250630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/250630Z-251800ZFEB2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241351ZFEB2022//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/242151ZFEB2022//
NARR/ REF B IS A TROPICAL CYLCONE FORMATION ALERT. REF C IS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1)THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.9S 128.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 128.4E, APPROXIMATELY
400NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241938Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS ELONGATED,
DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 241339 ASCAT-B PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWS 25-30 KT WINDS
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT THE INVEST IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY PRONOUNCED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30-
31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THESE ARE OFFSET BY UNFAVORABLE (25-
30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS DEPICTED ON THE 1800Z CIMSS DEEP LAYER
WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS. OBSERVATIONS FROM PT. FAWCETT REPORT 15KT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM MEANDERS IN THE GULF OF BONAPARTE OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE
REF C (WTXS21 PGTW 242200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S; PREVIOUSLY 90S)
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 96.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S
95.9E, APPROXIMATELY 84NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. A 241159Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHILE ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TWIN CONVECTIVE TOWERS
SPIRALING INTO THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, BURGEONING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL
TRACK WESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 241400) FOR
FUTHER DETAILS.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.2S 88.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 89.2E, APPROXIMATELY
450NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULITSPECTRAL IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WHILE RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALED 25-30KTS WINDS
WRAPPING INTO THE AFORMENTIONED LOW LEVEL VORTEX. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPCIAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30C)SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
MODERATE POLEWARD OUFLOW. MODELS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
EAST, BUT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS COMPLICATED AS 93S WILL HAVE TO
COMPETE WITH ITS TWIN SYSTEM, 92S. THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR 93S
TO INTENSIFY AND REACH 35KTS AS THE TWO STORMS BEGIN BINARY
INTERACTION AND DANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
 (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: THE AREA OF CONVECTION
(REMNANTS OF TC 13S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 28.7S 41.8E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 29.7S 41.7E, APPROXIMATELY 385NM SOUTH OF TOLIARA,
MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL
STORM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MID-
LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED, ELONGATED AND DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A BROAD DEFORMATION ZONE DISPLACED TO
THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POOR ENVIRONMENT FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH A STRONG GRADIENT OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (20-50KTS) DECAPITATING THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FEATURES AND
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (18-20C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT
THE REMNANTS OF 13S WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD, STRETCH, BECOME
ASYMETRICAL, AND FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INDICATING
TROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BE UNLIKELY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 38-43 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 989MB. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE
FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER
TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
SYSTEM TO TRANSITION INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPCIAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(3) TO LOW.
MOVED THE AREA IN PARA. 2.C.(1) TO THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY.
NNNN


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