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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Australia: At: 0729 Utc 25/02/2022 
Message-ID: <20220225072959.1B5F51C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2022 07:29:59 +0000
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AXAU01 ADRM 250729
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0729 UTC 25/02/2022
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 23U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 12.7S
Longitude: 127.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: south southwest (198 deg)
Speed of Movement: 3 knots (6 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  25/1200: 13.0S 127.7E:     045 (085):  035  (065):  995
+12:  25/1800: 13.2S 127.6E:     055 (100):  040  (075):  992
+18:  26/0000: 13.4S 127.6E:     060 (115):  045  (085):  989
+24:  26/0600: 13.7S 127.5E:     070 (130):  045  (085):  989
+36:  26/1800: 14.0S 127.1E:     085 (155):  045  (085):  989
+48:  27/0600: 14.1S 126.9E:     120 (220):  035  (065):  995
+60:  27/1800: 14.2S 126.7E:     145 (265):  035  (065):  995
+72:  28/0600: 14.5S 126.3E:     175 (320):  035  (065):  995
+96:  01/0600: 15.5S 124.7E:     245 (450):  035  (065):  996
+120: 02/0600: 17.3S 122.3E:     310 (580):  040  (075):  994
REMARKS:
23U has been located by geo-stationary satellite imagery . It is also visible
on the edge of Wyndham radar coverage. The elevated circulation seen on radar
is assumed to be displaced slightly down-shear of the LLCC.    

The satellite signature of tropical low 23U has improved curvature. Which is
consistent with microwave imagery at 05:01 UTC. Dvorak analysis based on curved
band pattern with a 3hr average 0.5. Intensity analysis increased to FT/CI 2.5
based on MET/PAT. Intensity is set at 30 knots (10 minute mean) based on Dvorak
and scatterometry. There are no objective intensity estimates available yet.  

The environment surrounding 23U is difficult to diagnose. CIMSS wind shear
analysis currently suggests moderate to strong (25-30 knot) easterly shear near
the system centre, however it is close to a strong shear gradient with the
upper anticyclone centre just east over the Northern Territory. However there
is evidence of weakening of easterly shear in the satellite imagery. Otherwise,
SSTs are favourable in excess of 30 degrees. There is some drier air to the
south over the Australian continent but this should not be a mitigating factor
to development in the short to medium term. 

The analysed development trend and available NWP guidance all suggests
development. Therefore 23U is forecast to reach TC intensity late Friday or
early Saturday.  

The steering influences on 23U include a mid-level anticyclone over Western
Australia, and lower level monsoonal westerly flow to the north. Given these
opposing influences, 23U has been slow moving through most of today. In the
short to medium term though models agree that speed of movement of 23U to the
southwest is likely to increase with the mid-level anticyclone becoming the
more dominant steering influence.  

Latest guidance has reduced the chance of an easterly movement even further,
which has been reflected in the forecast track and reduction in easterly extent
of the Confidence Cones for +48 hours and onwards. The more likely track is to
the southwest, taking it near the west Kimberley coast. The intensity forecast
is based on the forecast track over land. If it remains offshore, intensity is
likely to be higher. 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/1330 UTC.


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