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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Australia: At: 1315 Utc 25/02/2022 
Message-ID: <20220225131533.77F5E1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2022 13:15:33 +0000
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AXAU01 ADRM 251315
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1315 UTC 25/02/2022
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 23U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 12.7S
Longitude: 127.6E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: south southwest (206 deg)
Speed of Movement: 2 knots (4 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  25/1800: 12.9S 127.5E:     040 (075):  040  (075):  992
+12:  26/0000: 13.1S 127.5E:     050 (095):  045  (085):  989
+18:  26/0600: 13.4S 127.3E:     055 (105):  045  (085):  990
+24:  26/1200: 13.7S 127.3E:     065 (120):  050  (095):  986
+36:  27/0000: 13.9S 127.0E:     100 (180):  035  (065):  994
+48:  27/1200: 14.0S 126.9E:     140 (260):  035  (065):  995
+60:  28/0000: 14.0S 126.6E:     165 (310):  035  (065):  995
+72:  28/1200: 14.4S 126.2E:     200 (365):  035  (065):  996
+96:  01/1200: 15.4S 124.5E:     250 (465):  035  (065):  996
+120: 02/1200: 17.5S 122.4E:     285 (530):  035  (065):  996
REMARKS:
23U has been located using Wyndham radar.   

23U is now showing a shear pattern with a very tight T gradient on the eastern
side of the deep convection. Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern yields a DT
of 3.0, some discretion has been applied. Intensity analysis remains FT/CI 2.5
based on MET/PAT. Intensity is set at 35 knots (10-minute mean) however with
gales confined to the NW quadrant. NOAA ADT has an intensity of 41 knots
(1-minute mean) based on a final Tno of 2.8. No other objective intensity
estimates are currently available.  

CIMSS wind shear analysis currently suggests moderate to strong (25-30 knot)
easterly shear near the system centre, however it is close to a strong shear
gradient with the upper anticyclone centre just east over the Northern
Territory. Deep convection is persisting near the LLCC despite the effects of
shear and is increasing on the upshear side. SSTs are favourable in excess of
30 degrees and the system is in a generally moist environment.

Given the system does not appear to be experiencing ill effects due to shear
and the otherwise favourable environment, 23U is forecast to steadily intensify
until making landfall in around 24 hours time.  

The steering influences on 23U include a mid-level anticyclone over Western
Australia, and lower level monsoonal westerly flow to the north. Given these
opposing influences, 23U has been slow moving thus far. As the system
strengthens it is expected to move slowly south allowing the mid-level
anticyclone to become the more dominant steering influence.
 
The medium to long term intensity forecast is based on the forecast track
remaining very near the coast or over land. If it moves further west and
offshore, intensity is likely to be higher. 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/1930 UTC.


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