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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220225160059.1603B1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2022 16:00:59 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 251600
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Feb 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough extends from the coast of northern Colombia near 07N78W
to 05N92W. The ITCZ continues from 05N92W to 04N109W, then
resumes W of a surface trough from 04N115W to 07N122W to 08N140W.
A surface trough extending from 06N109W to 03N112W splits the 
ITCZ. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03.5N to 06.5N 
between 77W and 79W and from 07N to 08N between 134.5W and 
136.5W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A ridge dominates the waters west of Baja California producing
mainly moderate N winds to the west of the entire peninsula. 
Fresh NW winds are present in the southern and central Gulf of 
California, with moderate winds in the northern Gulf. Light to 
gentle winds prevail in the offshore waters from Manzanillo 
through the state of Oaxaca. Strong N winds prevail in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec, north of 14.5N. Recent altimeter data from 
25/1230 UTC shows waves as high as 7 ft offshore the state of 
Sinaloa and near the entrance to the Gulf of California. Seas 
are 5-7 ft west of Baja California and 4-6 ft in the southern 
half of the Gulf of California. Seas are 2-4 ft in the northern 
Gulf of California. Seas are 3-5 ft elsewhere, except up to 6 ft 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, NW winds over the southern two-thirds of the 
Gulf of California will increase to fresh to strong tonight.
Those winds will prevail through the weekend there. Seas will 
build to 5-7 ft S of Tiburon Island through Sun night. Moderate 
to locally fresh N winds and modest seas will prevail west of
Baja California through Sun. Strong N winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will increase to near gale force tonight. N winds 
there will remain strong to near gale force through Sun before 
increasing to gale force by Sun evening. The gales should 
continue through Mon night, with seas up to 13 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Weakening high pressure ridging over the eastern Gulf of Mexico 
and northern Caribbean Sea continues to combine with a trough 
over the E equatorial Pacific waters to produce a modest area of 
fresh to strong NE gap winds over the Papagayo region, extending
offshore to near 89W, while fresh N winds are over the Gulf of 
Panama N of 05N. Seas are 5-6 ft in the Papagayo region, and 4-6
ft south of the Gulf of Panama. Seas of 3-4 ft are occurring 
elsewhere. 

For the forecast, NE winds will pulse to fresh to strong across 
the Papagayo region each night into early next week as high 
pressure remains N of the area. Moderate N winds will pulse to 
fresh to locally strong across the Gulf of Panama at night 
through Sat night, then continue pulsing to fresh at night into 
early next week. Light to gentle winds will remain elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1029 mb is located near 35N129W, with a ridge 
extending SE to the Revillagigedo Islands. The gradient between
the high pressure and lower pressure along the ITCZ is producing
fresh trades from the ITCZ to 23N between 117W-140W. Seas are 
8-10 ft within the fresh trade wind zone based on altimeter data.
Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere. A surface trough extends from 
13N117W to 10N118W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
09N-11N between 116.5W and 119.5W. A broad area of cloudiness 
associated with upper-level diffluence, to the east of an upper-
level trough, is noted from 10N-22N between 115W-130W. Scattered 
showers are possible within this area.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control near 30N
over the region, maintaining fresh to strong trades across much 
of the area from the ITCZ to 20N, and west of 117W over the next
couple of days. Convection N of the ITCZ between about 114W and 
125W associated with a surface trough will continue through the 
weekend. A new set of long period NW swell will move into the 
western part of the area by Sat, keeping 8-11 ft seas across 
most of the area north of 05N and west 120W through at least Sun 
night.

$$
Hagen


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