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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian 
Message-ID: <20220225174910.9894B1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2022 17:49:10 +0000
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Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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ABIO10 PGTW 251800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/251800Z-261800ZFEB2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251351ZFEB2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251352ZFEB2022//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 25FEB22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 93.3E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS
ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW
251500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 25FEB22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 127.8E, APPROXIMATELY 182 NM WEST OF DARWIN,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 251500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.4S 88.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 87.5E, APPROXIMATELY 919
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
AND A 251114Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLC). THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30C)SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST, BUT INTENSIFICATION AND CONSOLIDATION IS
COMPLICATED AS 93S WILL HAVE TO COMPETE WITH ITS TWIN SYSTEM, TC 14S
(VERNON). THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR 93S TO INTENSIFY AND REACH
35KTS AS THE TWO STORMS BEGIN TO DANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN


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