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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Australia: Idd20020 
Message-ID: <20220225190817.30C671C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2022 19:08:16 +0000
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AXAU01 ADRM 251906
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1906 UTC 25/02/2022
Name: Tropical Cyclone Anika
Identifier: 23U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 12.9S
Longitude: 127.6E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: south (180 deg)
Speed of Movement: 2 knots (4 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 45 nm (85 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 75 nm (140 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS  STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  26/0000: 13.1S 127.5E:     040 (075):  045  (085):  989
+12:  26/0600: 13.4S 127.4E:     050 (090):  045  (085):  988
+18:  26/1200: 13.7S 127.3E:     055 (105):  050  (095):  986
+24:  26/1800: 13.9S 127.1E:     065 (115):  045  (085):  990
+36:  27/0600: 13.9S 127.0E:     100 (180):  035  (065):  995
+48:  27/1800: 14.0S 126.8E:     140 (260):  035  (065):  995
+60:  28/0600: 14.2S 126.5E:     165 (305):  035  (065):  995
+72:  28/1800: 14.6S 125.8E:     200 (365):  035  (065):  996
+96:  01/1800: 15.8S 124.0E:     250 (465):  040  (075):  994
+120: 02/1800: 18.1S 122.2E:     285 (530):  035  (065):  997
REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Anika has been located by geo-stationary satellite imagery and
Wyndham radar.    

The satellite signature of Anika is dominated by two convective blooms with
some curvature evident in the eastern convection. A tighter temperature
gradient on the eastern side of the cloud tops indicates the continuing
influence of some easterly deep layer shear. Dvorak analysis is based on a
curved band pattern with a 0.55 to 0.6 wrap. DT is 2.5 to 3. MET is 2.5 based
on a 24 hour D trend, and PAT is increased to 3.0. Final T 3.0. Intensity is
set at 40 knots (10 minute mean). This is consistent with CIMSS ADT (45 knots,
1 minute mean). NESDIS ADT is higher at 51 knots (1 minute), while AiDT is
lower. 

CIMSS satellite winds depict diffluent upper level flow over Anika. The
analysed deep layer shear has dropped to approximately 20 knots, with a shear
minimum further south along the forecast track. SSTs are favourable in excess
of 30 degrees. There is some drier air to the south over the Australian
continent but this should not be a mitigating factor to development in the
short term. Therefore Anika is forecast to steadily intensify prior to
landfall, and this is consistent with NWP guidance.  

The steering influences on Anika include a mid-level anticyclone over Western 
Australia, and lower level monsoonal westerly flow to the north. Given these 
opposing influences, Anika has been slow moving thus far. As the system moves
south, the mid-level anticyclone is expected to become the dominant steering
influence. 
 
The medium to long term intensity forecast is based on the forecast track 
remaining very near the coast or over land. If it moves further west and 
offshore, intensity is likely to be higher.  
 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/0130 UTC.


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