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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220226025222.4CDFC1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2022 02:52:22 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 260251
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Feb 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong N winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will increase to minimal gale force after midnight
tonight and quickly diminish by late Sat morning. Seas are=20
forecast to peak near 12 ft early Sat morning. Strong to near=20
gale force N winds will then continue through Sun. N winds are=20
forecast to increase to gale force again Sunday evening through=20
Mon night with seas building to near 14 ft over the area. Strong
N winds will then continue Tue through at least Wed night. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/=
MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!vIgt6Xm6np9fIlANO6uUojWhZpwXAg5es_0DzMIG0GmM0E99=
dEvLMw-1kgPc31z3G39Oims8$=20=20
for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A trough extends from the coast of northern Colombia near
07N77W to 06N82W to 04N90W. The ITCZ continues from 04N90W to=20
08N132W, then resumes W of a surface trough beyond 06N140W. A=20
surface trough extending from 06N111W to 02N115W splits the ITCZ.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between=20
130W and 135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details on=20
gales forecast for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A ridge dominates the waters west of Baja California producing
mainly moderate N winds to the west of the entire peninsula.=20
Recent ASCAT satellite data shows fresh NW winds in the southern
and central Gulf of California. Moderate NW winds are likely=20
occurring in the northern Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail in=20
the offshore waters from Manzanillo through the state of Oaxaca.=20
Strong N winds prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, north of 15N.=20
Recent altimeter data shows waves of 5-7 ft offshore the state=20
of Sinaloa and near the entrance to the Gulf of California. Seas=20
are 5-7 ft west of Baja California and 4-6 ft in the southern=20
half of the Gulf of California. Seas are 3-4 ft in the northern=20
Gulf of California. Seas are 3-5 ft elsewhere, except up to 6 ft=20
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, NW winds over the southern two-thirds of the=20
Gulf of California will increase to fresh to strong Sat. Those=20
winds will prevail through the weekend. Seas will build to 5-7=20
ft S of Tiburon Island through Sun night. Moderate to locally=20
fresh N winds and modest seas will prevail west of Baja=20
California through Sun. Long period NW swell will reach the=20
waters west of Baja California late Sun night into Mon, with seas
as high as 8-9 ft well offshore through Mon night, before=20
subsiding Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure ridging over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and=20
northern Caribbean Sea combined with a trough over the E=20
equatorial Pacific waters to produce a modest area of fresh to=20
strong NE gap winds over the region offshore Papagayo. Fresh N=20
winds are over the Gulf of Panama N of 05N. Seas are 5-7 ft in=20
the Papagayo region, and 4-5 ft south of the Gulf of Panama. Seas
of 3-4 ft are occurring elsewhere.=20

For the forecast, NE winds will pulse to fresh to strong across=20
the Papagayo region each night into the middle of next week as=20
high pressure remains N of the area. Moderate N winds will pulse=20
to fresh to locally strong across the Gulf of Panama at night=20
through Sat night, then continue pulsing to fresh at night into=20
the middle of next week. Gentle winds will persist elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1027 mb is located near 33N128W, with a broad=20
ridge extending SE to the Revillagigedo Islands. The gradient=20
between the high pressure and lower pressure along the ITCZ is=20
producing fresh to locally strong trades from the ITCZ to 23N=20
between 120W-140W, as confirmed by recent ASCAT satellite wind=20
data. Seas are 8-10 ft in this area, based on recent satellite=20
altimeter data. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere. A broad area
of cloudiness associated with upper-level diffluence, to the=20
east of an upper-level trough, is noted from 09N-20N between=20
113W-132W. Scattered showers are possible within this area.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control near 30N
over the region, maintaining fresh to strong trades across much=20
of the area from the ITCZ to 20N, and west of 117W through Sun. A
new set of long period NW swell will move into the western part=20
of the area by Sat, keeping 8-11 ft seas across most of the area=20
north of 05N and west 120W through at least Mon.

$$
Torres


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