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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Australia: At: 0729 Utc 26/02/2022 
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Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2022 07:29:26 +0000
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AXAU01 ADRM 260729
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0729 UTC 26/02/2022
Name: Tropical Cyclone Anika
Identifier: 23U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 13.1S
Longitude: 127.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: south southeast (154 deg)
Speed of Movement: 2 knots (4 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots (120 km/h)
Central Pressure: 987 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 85 nm (155 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  26/1200: 13.3S 127.7E:     035 (065):  045  (085):  987
+12:  26/1800: 13.5S 127.6E:     050 (090):  050  (095):  984
+18:  27/0000: 13.7S 127.5E:     055 (105):  050  (095):  984
+24:  27/0600: 13.8S 127.3E:     060 (115):  050  (095):  984
+36:  27/1800: 14.1S 126.7E:     075 (140):  040  (075):  991
+48:  28/0600: 14.2S 126.0E:     090 (170):  035  (065):  993
+60:  28/1800: 14.9S 125.2E:     110 (200):  035  (065):  994
+72:  01/0600: 15.4S 124.0E:     140 (260):  040  (075):  991
+96:  02/0600: 16.8S 121.6E:     185 (345):  055  (100):  982
+120: 03/0600: 19.5S 121.8E:     265 (495):  050  (095):  984
REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Anika has been located by geo-stationary satellite imagery,
Wyndham radar and assisted by microwave pass at 0501UTC. The elevated
circulation seen on radar is assumed to be displaced slightly down-shear of the
LLCC. 

The satellite signature of Anika is dominated by a convective pulses, with
periods of increased lightning activity. A tighter temperature gradient and
sharp edge in visible on the eastern side of the cloud tops indicates the
continuing influence of easterly deep layer shear.  

Dvorak analysis is based mainly on MET and PAT because cloud features were not
clear cut. Curved band gave a DT of 2.5. MET is 3.0 based on a 24 hour D-
trend, and PAT agrees. Final T 3.0. Intensity is set at 45 knots (10 minute
mean). This is consistent with CIMSS ADT 57 knots, 1 minute mean), AIDT 43
knots, 1 minute mean, previous ASCAT, which has gales in all quadrants and
NESDIS ADT 53 knots (1 minute). 

CIMSS satellite winds depict diffluent upper level flow over Anika. The
analysed deep layer shear has remained consistent at approximately 20 knots,
with a shear minimum further south along the forecast track. SSTs are
favourable in excess of 30 degrees. There is some drier air to the south over
the Australian continent but this should not be a mitigating factor to
development in the short term. Therefore Anika is forecast to steadily
intensify prior to landfall, and this is consistent with NWP guidance.  

The steering influences on Anika include a mid-level anticyclone over Western
Australia, and lower level monsoonal westerly flow to the north. Given these
opposing influences, Anika has been slow moving thus far. As the system moves
south, the mid-level anticyclone is expected to become the dominant steering
influence and Anika is forecast to track to the west southwest. Later in the
week, an approaching upper trough is expected to move the system towards the
southeast. 
 
The medium to long term intensity forecast is based on the forecast track
moving offshore from the Kimberley and reaching category 2 in favourable
conditions. If it moves further west and offshore, further strengthening is
likely and Anika could reach category 4 intensity.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/1330 UTC.


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