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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220226085332.1E7F41C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2022 08:53:31 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 260853
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Feb 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong N winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will increase to minimal gale forc through Sat morning.
Seas are forecast to peak near 12 ft early Sat morning. Strong=20
to near gale force N winds will then continue the remainder of
the day through Sun. N winds are forecast to increase to gale=20
force again by Sunday evening through Mon night with seas=20
building to near 14 ft over the area. Strong N winds will then=20
continue Tue through at least Wed night. Please read the latest=20
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at=20
website https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.=
shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!rZ1nZN8BxLYQ6te6r4GfltXn_79pBZ9pKBADXwb4sArlE1ziRdmbT-gmC9=
l5hZqA3w6BfSXG$  for more=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A trough extends from the coast of northern Colombia near
06N77W to 05N91W. The ITCZ continues from 05N91W to 06N129W
to beyond 07N140W. A surface trough extends from 10N117W to=20
13N115W N of the ITCZ. Scattered moderate convection is noted=20
180 nm N of the ITCZ between 104W and 109W and between 124W to=20
131W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details on=20
gales forecast for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A ridge dominates the waters west of Baja California producing
mainly moderate N winds to the west of the peninsula with the
exception of isolated area of fresh to strong south of Punta=20
Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro. Recent ASCAT satellite data shows=20
moderate to fresh NW winds in the central Gulf of California
while light to moderate are noted in the northern Gulf. Light to
gentle winds prevail in the offshore waters from Manzanillo=20
through the state of Oaxaca. Strong N winds prevail in the Gulf=20
of Tehuantepec, north of 15N. Recent altimeter data shows waves=20
of 5-7 ft offshore the state of Sinaloa and near the entrance to=20
the Gulf of California. Seas are 4-6 ft in the southern half of=20
the Gulf of California. Seas are 3-4 ft in the northern Gulf of=20
California. Seas are 3-5 ft elsewhere, except up to 6 ft in the=20
Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, NW winds over the southern two-thirds of the=20
Gulf of California will increase to fresh to strong Sat. Those=20
winds will prevail through the weekend. Seas will build to 5-7=20
ft S of Tiburon Island through Sun night. Moderate to locally=20
fresh N winds and modest seas will prevail west of Baja=20
California through Sun. Long period NW swell will reach the=20
waters west of Baja California late Sun night into Mon, with seas
as high as 8-9 ft well offshore through Mon night, before=20
subsiding Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure ridging over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and=20
northern Caribbean Sea combined with a trough over the E=20
equatorial Pacific waters to produce a modest area of fresh to=20
strong NE gap winds over the region offshore Papagayo. Fresh N=20
winds are over the Gulf of Panama N of 05N. Seas are 5-7 ft in=20
the Papagayo region, and 4-6 ft south of the Gulf of Panama.=20
Seas of 3-4 ft are occurring elsewhere.=20

For the forecast, NE winds will pulse to fresh to strong across=20
the Papagayo region each night into the middle of next week as=20
high pressure remains N of the area. Moderate N winds will pulse=20
to fresh to locally strong across the Gulf of Panama at night=20
through Sat night, then continue pulsing to fresh at night into=20
the middle of next week. Gentle winds will persist elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1030 mb is located near 33N131W, with a broad=20
ridge extending as far SE to the Revillagigedo Islands. The=20
gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure along the=20
ITCZ is producing fresh to locally strong trades from the ITCZ to
23N between 120W-140W, as confirmed by recent ASCAT satellite=20
wind data. Seas are 8-10 ft in this area, based on recent=20
satellite altimeter data. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere. A=20
broad area of cloudiness associated with upper-level diffluence,=20
to the east of an upper-level trough, is gradually weakening but
showers are still lingering east of the trough. The area of=20
showers extends from 09N-20N between 113W-132W. Scattered to=20
isolated thunderstorm can not be ruled out within this area.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control near 30N
over the region, maintaining fresh to strong trades across much=20
of the area from the ITCZ to 20N, and west of 117W through Sun. A
new set of long period NW swell will move into the western part=20
of the area by Sat, keeping 8-11 ft seas across most of the area=20
north of 05N and west 120W through at least Mon.

$$
Torres


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