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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Intense Tropical Cyclone 7 (vernon) 
Message-ID: <20220226122629.8D3381C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2022 12:26:29 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 261224
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/7/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/26 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 88.0 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 956 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/27 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2022/02/27 12 UTC: 13.4 S / 87.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 335 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2022/02/28 00 UTC: 13.6 S / 86.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 35

48H: 2022/02/28 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2022/03/01 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 390 SW: 260 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 130 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2022/03/01 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 480 SW: 305 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SW: 155 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/02 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 455 SW: 345 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 65

120H: 2022/03/03 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 435 SW: 260 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 185 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 90

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=5.5+

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FUJIWARA EFFECT, THE INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE VERNON SHOWS AN EVOLUTION OF ITS CLOUD CONFIGURATION
INITIALLY IN EYE TOWARDS A CONFIGURATION OF CDO PATTERN DURING THE
LAST MOMENTS, WITH SIGNS OF SHEARING. THE TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST IS
PROGRESSIVELY ORIENTED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. IN THESE CONDITIONS,
THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS REVISED DOWNWARDS LEAVING A WIND ESTIMATE OF
ABOUT 95KT AND A STRONG DISSYMMETRY IN THE WIND EXTENSIONS.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE FORECAST IS DELICATE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH IS
WEAKENING AND LEAVING A PREDOMINANT PLACE TO A FUJIWARA EFFECT WITH
THE SYSTEM LOCATED MORE NORTHEAST OF VERNON. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
THIS SYSTEM, THE TRACK WILL PRESENT A LOOP TOWARDS THE NORTH PUTTING
IT BACK ON A SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTERN TRACK WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE EXIT OF
THIS LOOP SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
BECAUSE OF THE MORE MARKED RESISTANCE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE
SOUTH-WEST OF VERNON. THEREAFTER, VERNON IS GUIDED TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY THE HIGH ALTITUDE GEOPOTENTIALS LOCATED EAST OF
THE SYSTEM AND THE TROUGH CIRCULATING FURTHER SOUTH. THIS TRACK WILL
CONTINUE BRINGING VERNON TOWARDS THE 25S ON THURSDAY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO DIFFICULT BECAUSE OF THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THIS WILL INDUCE A MUTUAL GENE BUT IT WILL
BE LESS MARKED FOR VERNON. THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCES ARE RATHER IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS POINT. THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
AUSTRALIAN BASIN WILL FIND ITSELF IN A ZONE OF INCREASING SHEAR AND A
LACK OF CONVERGENCE OF LOW LAYERS IN THE SOUTHERN PART. IN CONTRAST,
THE SHEAR OVER VERNON IS ALSO PRESENT BUT LESS SEVERE WHILE THE LOW
LEVEL SUPPLY OVER THE NORTHERN PART IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT LIMITING
GREATLY THE MAINTENANCE OF THE INTENSITY OF VERNON. IN THESE
CONDITIONS, THE INTENSITY OF VERNON WILL DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS LEAVING A TROPICAL CYCLONE (OR EVEN LESS) WELL WEAKENED AT THE
END OF ITS INTERACTION AND ITS LOOPED TRACK. THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS
PRESENT FOR THE MOMENT BUT WILL DECREASE WELL DURING THE LOOP
CONTRIBUTING AGAIN TO ATTENUATE THE INTENSITY OF VERNON. NOTE THAT
THE SECOND SYSTEM SHOULD RETURN TO OUR BASIN WITH WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN PART THAT CAN APPROACH 35KT BY GRADIENT EFFECT AND RAPID
MOVEMENT IN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. THEREAFTER, ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR
REMAINS AT A GOOD DISTANCE IN THE NORTHERN PART, THE WIND SHEAR IS
MORE PRESENT ON THE SOUTHERN PART AND ALLOWS ONLY A MODERATE
REINTENSIFICATION UNTIL TUESDAY. CONTINUING ITS DESCENT TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN LATITUDES, THE WIND SHEAR AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR FROM
THE NORTH WILL BEGIN THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM TO LEAD IT TO THE
STAGE OF STRONG TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THIS SYSTEM REMAINS FAR FROM INHABITED LANDS.=

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