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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2022 12:32:56 +0000
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113 
AWIO20 FMEE 261230

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN 
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN 

DATE: 2022/02/26 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Nil.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The monsoon flow is present over the entire basin and feeds a monsoon trough (MT) centered between 17S and 12S from west to east. The western part of the MT, west of 70E, is poorly defined, partly due to the presence of the post-tropical depression ex-EMNATI south of Madagascar and to an upper trough between Rodrigues and Mauritius. No closed circulation can be detected for the moment. No threat for the inhabited lands is expected for the next 5 days.

Post-Tropical Depression EX-EMNATI :
Position at 10UTC : 35.8oS / 45.7oE
Movement : south-southeast at 9 kt
Maximum wind averaged over 10 minutes : 50 kt
MSLP : 989 hPa

EX-EMNATI continues to migrate towards the mid-latitudes while maintaining a hybrid structure for the moment.

Intense Tropical Cyclone VERNON :
Position at 09UTC : 14.5S / 89.0E
Movement : west-northwest at 9 kt
Maximum winds averaged over 10 minutes: 100 kt
MSLP : 954 hPa
For more information on this system, refer to bulletins WTIO21 and WTIO31 issued at 06Z and following.

System near ITC VERNON :

The minimum mentioned yesterday in this bulletin has undergone a phase of intensification last night caught in a rapid eastward movement related to the Fujiwara effect with the ITC VERNON. This morning's ASCAT passes showed the presence of gale force winds (35kt) in the northern semicircle. Since this morning, this minimum has entered the Australian area of responsibility. It is followed by the BOM in its outlook IDW10800. On the last satellite images, the surface circulation appears clearly exposed. This minimum should return into our area of responsibility by the end of the night or tomorrow morning, on a track still driven by the interaction with VERNON. This system could weaken by that time even if some models suggest a return to our area at the moderate tropical storm stage. The exact intensity of the system last night will be reassessed in the future.  If necessary, the system could be numbered.

The risk of a moderate tropical storm entering our AoR from the Australian area is moderate tomorrow.

Over the western part of the basin:

Under the possible push of a Mixed Rossby-Gravity wave (MRG) and possibly others (Kelvin, Equatorial Rossby,..) the monsoon trough is expected to strengthen south of Agalega during next week. The strengthening of the convergence on the equatorial side should particularly favor the development of a tropical minimum in this area. The polar convergence could remain rather modest at first limiting the risk of cyclogenesis within the next 5 days. Currently, no numerical model suggests a significant risk in this time frame.

There is no other risk of a moderate tropical storm forming over the basin during the next 5 days.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%
                                                                                                                                         
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.


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