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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220226155418.491B61C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2022 15:54:18 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 261554
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Feb 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force N winds to around 35
kt are currently occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas
to 12 ft. Winds are forecast to diminish to below gale force=20
around midday today. However, strong to near gale force N winds=20
will continue through Sun. Then, N winds are forecast to increase
to gale force again by Sun evening and last through Mon night=20
with seas building to 13 ft over the area. Strong to near gale=20
force N winds will then continue Tue through at least Wed night.=20
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National=20
Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;=
!!DZ3fjg!t684I6W05nccicUSF7l71BRexpJeJCO0_uQ56-d8I4gDtt6gB_j2cXdaZkCl3wEAVd=
GxtEHY$  for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A trough extends from the coast of northern Colombia near
06N77W to 05N93W. The ITCZ continues from 05N93W to 05N115W to
06N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection noted
from 06N to 17N between 119W and 133W is more due to an upper-
level trough rather than due to the ITCZ.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A 1026 mb high pressure is centered near 32N127W with ridging=20
extending SE across the Mexico offshore waters. Gentle to=20
moderate N winds are noted off Baja California Norte, with=20
moderate to fresh N winds off Baja California Sur. Fresh NW winds
are occurring in the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds=20
prevail in the offshore waters from Manzanillo through the state=20
of Oaxaca. Strong to gale force N winds prevail in the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec. Recent satellite altimeter data show seas of 4-6 ft=20
from the entrance of the Gulf of California to offshore the state
of Jalisco. Similar wave heights are likely occurring in the=20
southern Gulf of California and west of Baja California. Seas of=20
2-3 ft prevail in the northern Gulf of California. Seas are 3-5=20
ft are elsewhere, except 8-12 ft offshore the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, NW winds over the southern two-thirds of the=20
Gulf of California will increase to fresh to strong this
afternoon. The fresh to strong winds there will continue through
Sun night before gradually diminishing Mon into Mon night. Seas=20
will build to 6-7 ft S of Tiburon Island through Sun night.=20
Moderate to locally fresh N winds and modest seas will prevail=20
west of Baja California, to the south of El Rosario, through Sun.
Long period NW swell will reach the waters west of Baja=20
California Sun night, with seas of 7-9 ft prevailing offshore=20
through Mon night, before subsiding Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE gap winds are likely currently occurring early
this morning over the region offshore Papagayo. Fresh N winds=20
are over the Gulf of Panama N of 05N. Seas are 6-8 ft in the=20
Papagayo region, and 4-6 ft south of the Gulf of Panama. Seas of=20
3-5 ft are occurring elsewhere.=20

For the forecast, NE winds will pulse to fresh to strong across=20
the Papagayo region each night into the middle of next week as=20
high pressure remains N of the area. Moderate to fresh N winds=20
will pulse to fresh to locally strong across the Gulf of Panama=20
at night tonight, then continue pulsing to fresh at night into=20
the middle of next week. Gentle winds will persist elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A 1026 mb high pressure is centered near 32N127W with a surface=20
ridge extending WSW from the high to 28N140W. Light to gentle
anticyclonic winds are occurring north of 26N in association with
the ridge axis. The gradient between the high pressure and lower
pressure along the ITCZ is producing fresh to locally strong=20
trades from the ITCZ to 23N between 120W-140W. Seas are 8-10 ft=20
in this area, as confirmed by recent satellite altimeter data. A
set of NW swell has crossed 140W now and is moving eastward. Seas
north of 23N and west of 137W have recently built to 8 to 10 ft.
Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere. A broad area of cloudiness=20
associated with upper-level diffluence, to the east of an upper-=20
level trough, is producing showers from 06N to 17N between 119W=20
and 133W.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control near 30N
over the region, maintaining fresh to strong trades across much=20
of the area from the ITCZ to 20N, and west of 117W through Sun
night. The set of long period NW swell over the western part of
the area will continue to spread over most of the area through
early Mon, keeping 8-11 ft seas across most of the area north of
05N and west 120W through at least Mon.

$$
Hagen


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