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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Cyclone 7 (vernon) 
Message-ID: <20220226182046.AC0FD1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2022 18:20:46 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 261819
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/7/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/26 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 35 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.9 S / 88.0 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 295 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/27 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 89.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 345 SW: 195 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 85 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2022/02/27 18 UTC: 13.6 S / 87.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 315 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

36H: 2022/02/28 06 UTC: 14.1 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2022/02/28 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 85.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 305 SW: 270 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2022/03/01 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 415 SW: 315 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2022/03/01 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 455 SW: 345 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 175 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/02 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 425 SW: 285 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 185 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2022/03/03 18 UTC: 26.5 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 350 SW: 295 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 80

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0+ CI=5.0+

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FUJIWARA EFFECT, VERNON CONTINUES TO
SUFFER FROM THE PROXIMITY OF THE SECOND SYSTEM UNDER THE EFFECT OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AMONG OTHERS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, NOW
PRESENTING A CONFIGURATION IN CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE MASS DURING THE
LAST HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS DECLARED IN TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY IS PROGRESSIVELY ORIENTED TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS REVISED
DOWNWARDS LEAVING A WIND ESTIMATE OF AROUND 80KT AND A STRONG
DISSYMMETRY IN THE WIND EXTENSIONS.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE FORECAST IS DELICATE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH IS
WEAKENING AND LEAVING A PREDOMINANT PLACE TO A FUJIWARA EFFECT WITH
THE SYSTEM LOCATED MORE NORTHEAST OF VERNON. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
THIS SYSTEM, THE TRACK WILL PRESENT A LOOP TOWARDS THE NORTH, THE
EAST,  PUTTING IT BACK ON A SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTERN TRACK WITHIN 48
HOURS. THE EXIT OF THIS LOOP SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BIT LATER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED BECAUSE OF THE MORE MARKED RESISTANCE OF THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE SOUTH-WEST OF VERNON. THEREAFTER, VERNON IS
GUIDED TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY THE HIGH ALTITUDE GEOPOTENTIALS
LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE TROUGH CIRCULATING FURTHER SOUTH.
THIS TRACK WILL CONTINUE BRINGING VERNON TOWARDS THE 25S ON THURSDAY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO DIFFICULT BECAUSE OF THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THIS WILL INDUCE A MUTUAL GENE BUT IT WILL
BE LESS MARKED FOR VERNON. THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCES ARE RATHER IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS POINT. THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
AUSTRALIAN BASIN WILL FIND ITSELF IN A ZONE OF INCREASING SHEAR AND A
LACK OF CONVERGENCE OF LOW LAYERS IN THE WESTERN PART. IN CONTRAST,
THE SHEAR OVER VERNON IS ALSO PRESENT BUT LESS SEVERE WHILE THE LOW
LEVEL SUPPLY OVER THE NORTHERN PART IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT LIMITING
GREATLY THE MAINTENANCE OF THE INTENSITY OF VERNON. IN THESE
CONDITIONS, THE INTENSITY OF VERNON WILL DECREASE DURING THE NEXT
24/36 HOURS LEAVING A TROPICAL CYCLONE (OR EVEN LESS) WELL WEAKENED
AT THE END OF ITS INTERACTION AND ITS LOOPED TRACK. THE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR THE MOMENT BUT WILL DECREASE WELL DURING THE
LOOP CONTRIBUTING AGAIN TO ATTENUATE THE INTENSITY OF VERNON. NOTE
THAT THE SECOND SYSTEM SHOULD RETURN TO OUR BASIN WITH WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN PART THAT CAN APPROACH 35KT BY GRADIENT EFFECT AND RAPID
MOVEMENT IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER, ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR
REMAINS AT A GOOD DISTANCE IN THE NORTHERN PART, THE WIND SHEAR IS
MORE PRESENT ON THE SOUTHERN PART AND ALLOWS ONLY A MODERATE
REINTENSIFICATION UNTIL TUESDAY. CONTINUING ITS DESCENT TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN LATITUDES, THE WIND SHEAR AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR FROM
THE NORTH WILL BEGIN THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM TO LEAD IT TO THE
STAGE OF STRONG TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THIS SYSTEM REMAINS FAR FROM INHABITED LANDS.=

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