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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone 15s (anika) Warning Nr 006// 
Message-ID: <20220226210315.7165A1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2022 21:03:15 +0000
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WTXS32 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ANIKA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ANIKA) WARNING NR 006
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261800Z --- NEAR 14.2S 126.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 126.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 14.6S 126.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 14.9S 125.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 15.2S 125.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 15.7S 124.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 126.7E.
26FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ANIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM ABOM AND
NUMEROUS NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, INCLUDING WINDS AND PRESSURE
FROM KALUMBURU, 10NM TO THE WEST, INDICATE TC 15S HAS MADE AN
UNEXPECTED SOUTHWARD JOG AND MADE LANDFALL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
IN THE RADAR LOOP AND TRIANGULATED FROM NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN THE NEARBY 261800Z WIND
OBSERVATIONS, INCLUDING SSW/15G32KTS AT KALUMBURU. ALTHOUGH THE
ENVIRONMENT OFFSHORE REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH LOW VWS, WARM SST, AND
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, THESE ARE GREATLY OFFSET BY FRICTIONAL EFFECTS
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. THE CYCLONE WILL RESUME A SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK ALONG A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL REFLECTION OF A WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT WILL REMAIN OVER LAND, AT LEAST UP TO TAU
48. IN VIEW OF THIS, TC ANIKA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO 30 KTS BY TAU
12, BELOW JTWC WARNING CRITERIA. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING WHERE THE CYCLONE WAS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE COAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


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