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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220226211052.E40491C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2022 21:10:52 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 262110
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Feb 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Recent scatterometer data shows
strong to near gale force N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec=20
north of 13N, but gale force winds are no longer occurring.
Strong to near gale force N winds will continue through Sun.
Then, N winds are forecast to increase to gale force again by=20
Sun evening and last through Mon night with seas building to 13=20
ft over the area. Near gale force N winds will then continue Tue=20
through Wed, with gale force winds possible again Wed night.=20
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National=20
Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;=
!!DZ3fjg!t9i3doAHE7NwvrA_nO28hQI3D_JobiC7grONk0bp9PZJdDmGUVtVibH1mOmkEFOofm=
zstizc$  for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A trough extends from the coast of northern Colombia near
06N77W to 04N94W. The ITCZ continues from 04N94W to 06N110W to
07N120W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from=20
05N to 08N between 86W and 90W. Scattered moderate convection=20
from 06.5N to 16N between 121W and 135W is more due to an upper-
level trough rather than due to the ITCZ.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A 1026 mb high pressure is centered near 32N126W. Recent ASCAT
satellite wind data shows moderate N winds to the west of Baja
California and fresh N winds in the northern Gulf of California.
Fresh to strong NW winds are likely occurring in the southern and
central Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail in the
offshore waters from Manzanillo through the state of Oaxaca.=20
Strong to near gale force N winds prevail in the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec. Seas west of Baja California are likely 4-6 ft. Seas
of 5-6 ft are over the southern Gulf of California and over the
entrance to the Gulf, while 3-4 ft seas prevail elsewhere over
the Gulf. Seas are 3-5 ft are elsewhere, except 8-12 ft offshore
the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds over the southern=20
two-thirds of the Gulf of California will continue through Sun=20
night before gradually diminishing Mon into Mon night. Seas will=20
build to 6-7 ft S of Tiburon Island through Sun night. Moderate=20
to locally fresh N winds and modest seas will prevail west of=20
Baja California, to the south of El Rosario, through Sun. Long=20
period NW swell will reach the waters west of Baja California Sun
night, where seas of 7-8 ft will prevail offshore through Mon=20
night, before subsiding Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to locally strong NE gap winds are likely currently=20
occurring over the region offshore Papagayo. Moderate to fresh N
winds are over the Gulf of Panama N of 05N. Seas are 6-7 ft in=20
the Papagayo region, and 4-5 ft south of the Gulf of Panama.=20
Seas of 3-4 ft are occurring elsewhere, except 4-6 offshore
Guatemala and El Salvador due to swell from the gap events
occurring in Tehuantepec and Papagayo.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse each night
across the Papagayo region through late next week. Winds will=20
pulse to fresh to strong across the Gulf of Panama tonight, then=20
continue pulsing to fresh at night into the middle of next week.=20
Gentle winds will persist elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A 1029 mb high pressure is centered near 32N126W with a surface=20
ridge extending WSW from the high to 28N140W. Light to gentle=20
anticyclonic winds are occurring north of 26N in association with
the ridge axis. The gradient between the high pressure and lower
pressure along the ITCZ is producing fresh to strong trades from
the ITCZ to 21N between 118W-140W. Seas are 8-10 ft in this=20
area, as confirmed by recent satellite altimeter data. A set of=20
NW swell that crossed 140W early this morning is now approaching
130W, moving eastward. Seas north of 21N and west of 135W have=20
recently built to 8 to 10 ft today. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail=20
elsewhere. A broad area of cloudiness associated with upper-level
diffluence, to the east of an upper-level trough, is producing=20
showers from 06N to 16N between 121W and 135W.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control near 30N
over the region, maintaining fresh to strong trades across much=20
of the area from the ITCZ to 20N, and west of 117W through Sun
night. The set of long period NW swell over the western part of
the area will continue to spread over most of the area through
early Mon, keeping 8-11 ft seas across most of the area north of
05N and west 120W through at least Mon. Looking ahead, a cold
front is forecast to enter the area, passing SE of 30N140W around
the middle of next week.

$$
Hagen


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