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Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary
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251 
WWPS21 NFFN 262100
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 262312 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTRE TD09F [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 18.9S
164.4E AT 262100UTC. TD09F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI VIS AND IR/EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. 

CONVECTION LIES TO THE NORTHEAST OF SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION
REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES OVER A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.   

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WITH
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

*********************************************************************
***************

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE CORAL SEA IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
RSMC NADI'S AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BY MONDAY AND IS LIKELY TO BECOME
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS LOW POTENTIAL TO FORM INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE, INCREASING TO MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARDS.

*********************************************************************
***************
 
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

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