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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Cyclone 7 (vernon) 
Message-ID: <20220227010822.8AC9F1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2022 01:08:22 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 270104
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/7/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/27 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.4 S / 87.7 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/27 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 88.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 335 SW: 240 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 85 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 65 NW: 35

24H: 2022/02/28 00 UTC: 13.5 S / 86.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

36H: 2022/02/28 12 UTC: 14.1 S / 86.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2022/03/01 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 85.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 100 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2022/03/01 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 415 SW: 335 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 155 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2022/03/02 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SW: 325 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SW: 175 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/03 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 425 SW: 270 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 155 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 85

120H: 2022/03/04 00 UTC: 28.0 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 390 SW: 240 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 175 NW: 175

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.5+

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FUJIWARA EFFECT, VERNON CONTINUES TO
SUFFER FROM THE PROXIMITY OF THE SECOND SYSTEM UNDER THE EFFECT OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AMONG OTHERS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, NOW
PRESENTING A CONFIGURATION IN CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE MASS DURING THE
LAST HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS DECLARED IN TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY IS PROGRESSIVELY ORIENTED TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS REVISED
DOWNWARDS LEAVING A WIND ESTIMATE OF AROUND 70KT AND A STRONG
DISSYMMETRY IN THE WIND EXTENSIONS.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE FORECAST IS DELICATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH IS
WEAKENING AND LEAVING A PREDOMINANT PLACE TO A FUJIWARA EFFECT WITH
THE SYSTEM LOCATED MORE NORTHEAST OF VERNON. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
THIS SYSTEM, THE TRACK WILL PRESENT A LOOP TOWARDS THE EAST, THEN
SOUTH,  PUTTING IT BACK ON A SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTERN TRACK WITHIN 24
HOURS,THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE
RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF VERNON. THEREAFTER, VERNON IS GUIDED TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY THE HIGH ALTITUDE GEOPOTENTIALS LOCATED EAST OF
THE SYSTEM AND THE TROUGH CIRCULATING FURTHER SOUTH. THIS TRACK WILL
CONTINUE BRINGING VERNON ON THE 25S ON THURSDAY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO DIFFICULT BECAUSE OF THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THIS WILL INDUCE A MUTUAL GENE BUT IT WILL
BE LESS MARKED FOR VERNON. THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCES ARE RATHER IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS POINT. THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
AUSTRALIAN BASIN WILL FIND ITSELF IN A ZONE OF INCREASING SHEAR AND A
LACK OF CONVERGENCE OF LOW LAYERS IN THE WESTERN PART. IN CONTRAST,
THE SHEAR OVER VERNON IS ALSO PRESENT BUT LESS SEVERE WHILE THE LOW
LEVEL SUPPLY OVER THE NORTHERN PART IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT LIMITING
GREATLY THE MAINTENANCE OF THE INTENSITY OF VERNON. IN THESE
CONDITIONS, THE INTENSITY OF VERNON WILL DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS LEAVING A TROPICAL CYCLONE (OR EVEN LESS) WELL WEAKENED AT THE
END OF ITS INTERACTION AND ITS LOOPED TRACK. THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS
PRESENT FOR THE MOMENT BUT WILL DECREASE WELL DURING THE LOOP
CONTRIBUTING AGAIN TO ATTENUATE THE INTENSITY OF VERNON. NOTE THAT
THE SECOND SYSTEM SHOULD RETURN TO OUR BASIN WITH WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN PART THAT CAN APPROACH 35KT BY GRADIENT EFFECT AND RAPID
MOVEMENT IN THE NEXT HOURS. THEREAFTER, ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR REMAINS
AT A GOOD DISTANCE IN THE NORTHERN PART, THE WIND SHEAR IS MORE
PRESENT ON THE SOUTHERN PART AND ALLOWS ONLY A MODERATE
REINTENSIFICATION UNTIL TUESDAY. CONTINUING ITS DESCENT TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN LATITUDES, THE WIND SHEAR AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR FROM
THE NORTH WILL BEGIN THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM TO LEAD IT TO THE
STAGE OF STRONG TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THIS SYSTEM REMAINS FAR FROM INHABITED LANDS.=

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