Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.139.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.139.28;
From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian Ocean 
Message-ID: <20220227034030.B5E2F1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2022 03:40:30 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1645933233-112669-7431"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1645933233-112669-7431
Content-Type: text/plain

ABIO10 PGTW 270100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/270100Z-271800ZFEB2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261351ZFEB2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261952ZFEB2022//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 26FEB22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 88.0E, APPROXIMATELY 1003 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 100 KNOTS GUSTING TO 125 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 261500
COR) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 26FEB22 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ANIKA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 14.2S 126.8E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 262100) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.4S 88.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 91.4E, APPROXIMATELY 345
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION
PARTIALLY OBSCURING A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE ENVIRONMENT
IS MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH
(30-40KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS
AGREE THAT INVEST 93S WILL COMPLETE ITS BINARY INTERACTION WITH TC
14S WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 15S) HAS PERSISTED
NEAR 14.6S 126.1E, APPROXIMATELY 306 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN,
AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTURAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONDENSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CONDITIONS FOR REINTENSIFICATION
ARE FAVORABLE WITH LOW (05-10KTS) VWS, DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPURATURES IF TC 15S TRACKS INTO THE
INDIAN OCEAN. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT TC 15S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIAN
COAST AND POSSIBLY REMERGE OVER WATER AFTER TAU 72; WITH NAVGEM
BEING AN OUTLIER AND KEEPING THE SYSTEM INLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 991 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED WITH THE FINAL WARNING FOR TC
15S & DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.A.(2) TO MEDIUM. //
NNNN


------------=_1645933233-112669-7431
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1645933233-112669-7431--