Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.135.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.135.28;
From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Depression 8 
Message-ID: <20220227072851.09AA31C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2022 07:28:50 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1645946935-112669-7459"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1645946935-112669-7459
Content-Type: text/plain

WTIO30 FMEE 270708
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/8/20212022
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8

2.A POSITION 2022/02/27 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 89.8 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 220 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/27 18 UTC: 13.3 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 165 NW: 130

24H: 2022/02/28 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 88.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DISSIPATING
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0

THIS SYSTEM FORMED ON FEBRUARY 23 IN OUR AREA. IN A STEERING FLOW
GLOBALLY DRIVEN BY THE VERNON'S CIRCULATION, THIS SYSTEM MOVED
EASTWARD TO PASS EAST OF 90E YESTERDAY MORNING. ORBITING EAST OF
VERNON, THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED BACK TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND THEN TO THE
WEST SINCE LAST NIGHT, MAKING IT RETURN TO THE WEST OF 90E THIS
MORNING. IN SPITE OF THE PROXIMITY OF VERNON, THIS SYSTEM MANAGES TO
MAINTAIN A DEEP CONVECTION NEAR A CENTER WHICH KEEPS A GOOD
DEFINITION AT 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGING. THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT
30 KT BASED ON HY-2C DATA FROM LAST NIGHT ... MAYBE CONSERVATIVELY.
GALE IS LOCALLY PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

BEING OF MORE MODEST INTENSITY THAN VERNON, THE MOST PROBABLE
SCENARIO IS A CONTINUATION OF THE BINARY INTERACTION (FUJIWARA)
DURING THE NEXT 12-18H BEFORE DISSIPATION OF THIS CIRCULATION WITHIN
THE VERNON CIRCULATION.

IF THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY ALL THE MODELS, AN ALTERNATIVE
SCENARIO COULD BE A MAINTENANCE OF THIS SYSTEM INSTEAD OF VERNON WITH
THE FORMATION OF A UNIQUE VORTICITY POLE WHICH WOULD BE MADE FROM
THIS LOW INSTEAD OF THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH VERNON...=

------------=_1645946935-112669-7459
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1645946935-112669-7459--