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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220227092050.462311C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2022 09:20:50 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 270920
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Feb 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning:=20
N winds are forecast to increase to gale force across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec Sun evening and last through Mon night with seas=20
building to 16 ft over the area. Near gale force N winds will=20
then continue Tue through Wed, with gale force winds possible=20
again Wed night into Thu. Please read the latest High Seas=20
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;=
!!DZ3fjg!vcGcSNp58cmVr4JJRGxAzuy1HLAdaYWjoDW-H9hxwCPTNMTgy_tBOIvB4dBxxVfR8G=
WXiNVZ$  for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A trough extends from the coast of northern Colombia near
05N77W to 04N97W. The ITCZ continues from 04N97W to 07N119W to=20=20
05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 14N=20
between 113W and 124W. This is more due to an upper-level trough
rather than due to the proximity of the ITCZ.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A 1030 mb high pressure is centered near 32N126W. Recent ASCAT=20
satellite wind data shows moderate N winds to the west of Baja=20
California and fresh N winds in the central and southern Gulf of
California. Fresh to strong NW winds are likely occurring in the
southern and central Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds=20
prevail in the offshore waters from Manzanillo through the state=20
of Oaxaca. Strong to near gale force N winds prevail in the Gulf=20
of Tehuantepec. Seas west of Baja California are 4-6 ft. Seas of=20
5-6 ft are over the southern Gulf of California and over the=20
entrance to the Gulf, while 3-4 ft seas prevail elsewhere over=20
the Gulf. Seas are 3-5 ft are elsewhere, except up to 9 ft=20
offshore the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds over the southern=20
two-thirds of the Gulf of California will continue through Sun=20
night before gradually diminishing Mon into Mon night. Seas will=20
build to 6-7 ft S of Tiburon Island through Sun night. Moderate=20
to locally fresh N winds and modest seas will prevail west of=20
Baja California, to the south of El Rosario, through Sun. Long=20
period NW swell will reach the waters west of Baja California Sun
night, where seas of 7-8 ft will prevail offshore through Mon=20
night, before subsiding Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to locally strong NE gap winds are currently occurring=20
over the region offshore Papagayo and and moderate to fresh N=20
winds are over the Gulf of Panama N of 05N. Seas are 6-7 ft in=20
the Papagayo region, and 4-5 ft south of the Gulf of Panama. Seas
of 3-4 ft are occurring elsewhere, except 4-6 offshore Guatemala
and El Salvador due to swell from the gap events occurring in=20
Tehuantepec and Papagayo.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue to=20
pulse each night across the Papagayo region through late next=20
week. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong across the Gulf of=20
Panama tonight, then continue pulsing to fresh at night into the=20
middle of next week. Gentle winds will persist elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are occurring north of 27N to
32N in association with the ridge axis near 32N126W. The gradient
between the ridge and lower pressure along the ITCZ is producing
fresh to strong trades from the ITCZ to 24N between 120W-140W. A=20
broad area of cloudiness associated with upper-level diffluence,
to the east of an upper-level trough, is producing scattered=20
showers and isolated thunderstorms with fresh to strong winds and
occasional gusts to gale force from 10N to 13N between 119W and=20
124W. Seas are 8-10 ft in this area, as confirmed by recent=20
satellite altimeter data. A set of NW swell has already crossed=20
125W. Seas north of 21N and west of 135W have recently built to=20
8 to 10 ft. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere.=20

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control over the
region, maintaining fresh to strong trades across much of the=20
area from the ITCZ to 21N, and west of 117W through Sun night.=20
The new set of long period NW swell over the western part of the=20
area will continue to spread over most of the area through early=20
Mon, keeping 8-11 ft seas north of 05N and west 120W through at=20
least Mon. Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to enter the=20
area, passing SE of 30N140W around the middle of next week.

$$
Torres


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