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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Message-ID: <20220227100415.737C71C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2022 10:04:15 +0000
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206 
AWIO20 FMEE 271001

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/02/27 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:

Warning WTIO20 005/07 and WTIO30 005/07 issued at 06UTC on Severe Tropical Storm VERNON.

Warning WTIO20 001/08 and WTIO30 001/08 issued at 06UTC on Tropical Depression 08-20212022.

Next warnings at 12UTC

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The monsoon flow is present west of 70oE and feeds a monsoon trough (MT) oriented towards 13S. The convective activity is focused on the equatorial part of the MT. Within this MT, no closed circulation is detectable for the moment.

East of 70oE, the configuration is under the influence of the VERNON-system 08 pair, which concentrates a strong convective activity around the centers.

No threat to the inhabited lands is envisaged for the next 5 days.

Severe Tropical Storm VERNON :
Position at 09UTC : 12.2S / 88.2E
Movement : East at 6 kt
Maximum winds averaged over 10 minutes: 55 kt
MSLP : 980 hPa
For more information on this system, refer to bulletins WTIO20 and WTIO30 issued at 06UTC and following.

Tropical depression 08-20212022 :
Position at 09UTC : 15S / 88.8E
Movement : West at 15 kt
Maximum winds averaged over 10 minutes: 30 kt
MSLP : 998 hPa
For more information on this system, refer to bulletins WTIO20 and WTIO30 issued at 06UTC and following.

Over the western part of the basin:

Driven by large-scale waves, the monsoon trough is forecast to strengthen south of Agalega during the next week. The strengthening of the convergence on the equatorial side should promote the establishment of a circulation zone within the MT and define in the longer term (more than 7 days) a risk of cyclogenesis. At the moment, no numerical model envisages a significant risk in this window over the next 5 days.

There is no risk of a moderate tropical storm forming over the basin during the next 5 days.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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