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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 7 (vernon) 
Message-ID: <20220227124048.BD5321C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2022 12:40:48 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 271236
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/7/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5 S / 88.9 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/28 00 UTC: 13.7 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 0 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 100

24H: 2022/02/28 12 UTC: 14.4 S / 86.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 35

36H: 2022/03/01 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 155 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 85 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2022/03/01 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 84.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 380 SW: 230 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 120 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2022/03/02 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 435 SW: 240 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 140 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

72H: 2022/03/02 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 400 SW: 240 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/03 12 UTC: 24.7 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 315 SW: 195 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 95

120H: 2022/03/04 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 150

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+ CI=3.5-

THE SHEARED CONFIGURATION OF VERNON HAS BEEN FURTHER ACCENTUATED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER. GPM AND AMSR2 MICROWAVE
IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE SIGNIFICANT DESTRUCTION OF THE INNER CORE OF THE
SYSTEM AT BOTH 85 AND 37 GHZ (CIRCULATION STILL WELL SIGNED BUT
LOSING DEFINITION). THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT IN CONNECTION
WITH THE SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF DVORAK AND A NOTCH BELOW THE
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES (RATHER TOWARDS 55 KT AT 08-10Z). WE NOTE THAT THE
CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS POORLY POSITIONED ON THE CIMSS ADT ANALYSES.

VERNON IS STILL IN FULL BINARY INTERACTION WITH SYSTEM 08 (FUJIWHARA
EFFECT). ALTHOUGH THIS ONE IS LESS INTENSE, VERNON IS VERY
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED BY THE NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES OF THE INCREASE
OF THE SHEAR AND THE DECREASE OF THE LOW LEVELS CONVERGENCE CAUSED BY
THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SO MUCH SO THAT IT IS
POSSIBLE TO DOUBT THE SCENARIO FAVORED UNTIL NOW OF ABSORPTION OF THE
CIRCULATION OF DT 08 WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF VERNON. IF WITHIN 24
TO 30 HOURS, THERE WILL BE A UNIQUE VORTCITE POLE, WE CAN HAVE SOME
DOUBTS ON THE FACT THAT IT IS THE ONE OF VERNON WHICH WILL TAKE THE
UPPER HAND ...

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE FORECAST REMAINS SUBJECT TO THE FUJIWHARA
EFFECT WITH THE 08 SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THEREAFTER,
VERNON IS GUIDED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS OF
THE MID-TROPOSPHERE WHICH ARE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A
PERSISTENT WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH. THIS
TRACK WILL BE MAINTAINED DURING THE FOLLOWING DAYS LEADING VERNON TO
GAIN THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES WHILE REMAINING WELL AWAY FROM THE
INHABITED LANDS OF THE BASIN. THERE IS A GOOD DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN
THIS TRACK EVEN IF WE NOTE AN EAST-WEST DISPERSION (GFS A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST THAN IFS) IN THE GUIDANCE PLUME, ASSOCIATED WITH SLIGHT
DIVERGENCES IN TERMS OF TIMING (GFS TENDS TO BE FASTER). THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS DELICATE BECAUSE OF THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE INCREASE IN SHEAR, THE DECREASE IN LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AN ATTENUATED OCEANIC POTENTIAL MAY STILL
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT, CONDITIONS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND A NEW PEAK OF
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEFORE NORTHERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE BECOME LIMITING FOR
A CONTINUATION OF THE INTENSIFICATION TREND FROM WEDNESDAY. AT THE
END OF THE WEEK, WHEN THE SYSTEM EVOLVES SOUTH OF THE TROPICS OVER
INSUFFICIENTLY WARM WATERS, CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE TO BEGIN
THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

NO IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM ON INHABITED LANDS.=

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